Will the Japan - Taiwan exchange held by Kyoto Tachibana High School have an impact on the presidential election? - Impact on Taiwanese democracy since the Abe administration
2024-01-05
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Lowering the voting age in Taiwan
On October １０, ２０２２, Kyoto Tachibana High School put on a spectacular performance at the Taiwan Double Ten Festival. Taiwan's presidential election will be held on January １３th of this year. In Taiwan, voting rights will be lowered to １８ years or older in March ２０２２. This will be an event that anticipates the presidential election. The Taiwanese students who were high school students at the time were probably over １８ years old.
democratic election interference
In that sense, this is former Prime Minister Abe's intervention in Taiwan. This is a strategy to fully appeal to the younger generation by emphasizing the exchange of democratic values. Ever since the Biden administration announced its commitment to maintaining the "One China Policy," I have personally viewed Japan's democratic intervention in Taiwan from this perspective. The Biden administration's policy has been to maintain its long-standing "one China policy" and simply order China to speak with democratically elected representatives in Taiwan. In other words, the issue at this point will be Taiwan's presidential election in ２０２４.
Taiwanese diplomacy inherited
Unfortunately, this event took place during the Kishida administration after former Prime Minister Abe was assassinated. Former Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga referred to Taiwan as a "country" during a party leader debate. At the opening ceremony of the Tokyo Olympics, NHK, which is said to be pro-China, announced "Taiwan" instead of Chinese Taipei. Representative Takaichi held a remote meeting with President Tsai Ing-wen during the presidential election. These things have been widely reported in Taiwan. Unfortunately, the Kishida administration has not made any major moves since the ``Orange Devil'' performance, and on the contrary, it appears to have focused solely on currying favor with Xi Jinping.
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Why did President Tsai Ing - wen invite Kyoto Tachibana High School to the Double Ten Festival? - Taiwan's future entrusted to future generations.
Kyoto Tachibana High School where Taiwan was crazy
Japan's national defense and the Taiwan Strait issue are inseparable
Taiwan's democratization is a recent event
Danger of being swallowed up by China in the next election
Japan should convey the value of democracy
Regarding why Kyoto Tachibana High School's brass band (Orange Devil) was invited to Taiwan's National Foundation Day ceremony, President Tsai Ing-wen looked ahead to the presidential election in 2024 and asked the next generation who will have the right to vote at that time. It appears that Kyoto Tachibana High School was entrusted with a strong message. In the last presidential election in Taiwan, President Tsai Ing-wen came from behind to win despite being at an overwhelming disadvantage. The Taiwan Democratic Progressive Party itself analyzes that the reason for this is that young people are heading to the polls. It is said that the younger generation in Taiwan is starting to develop a sense of democratic values.
Japan should think more seriously about its national defense. There is no objection to considering the Taiwan Strait as an issue that is inseparable from Japan's national defense. What is needed to achieve this is strengthening Japan-US relations and discussing constitutional revision. But is that enough?
Taiwan's democratization began with the direct election of the president in 1996. It was written by former President Lee Teng-hui, who passed away recently. Has Taiwan followed the path of democratization smoothly since then? The first summit meeting between China and Taiwan was held under former President Ma Ying-jeou before President Tsai Ing-wen. There, former President Ma Ying-jeou and Xi Jinping held a meeting, reaffirming the 92 joint formula and returning to the one-China principle. That was in 2015.
Although Taiwan is a young democratic country, it is on the verge of strong growth. If the Democratic Progressive Party loses in the 2024 presidential election, Taiwan, one of the few democratic countries in Asia, may never smile again. Xi Jinping will try to intervene in Taiwan's presidential election in every possible way.
Kyoto Tachibana High School showed that there are many things Japan can do. Our goal is to show young Taiwanese through a variety of content that on the path to democracy there is a world where free people can realize their dreams. Taiwan considers Japan to be its democratic predecessor. The Japanese media, which should be primarily responsible for this, seems to be controlled by China.
China continues to intimidate
And the presidential election is just over a week away. China has been carrying out various intimidation and threats in the run-up to the Taiwan presidential election. The threat is that if China invades Taiwan, you young people will be the ones fighting on the battlefield. This is the Chinese Communist Party's reasoning. The Taiwan Strait is a sea lane through which oil tankers from the Middle East, which is Japan's lifeline, pass. If the Kuomintang wins, China will gain control of the Taiwan Strait. What has the Kishida administration done about this?
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Will Taiwan Become a Key Hole in China's
The Tiananmen Square incident will be remembered as China's democratization movement.Even tanks were deployed to eliminate the movement to democratize students and young people.Next is the Hong Kong demonstration.China has consistently reported this as violent behavior.
The Tiananmen Square incident was suppressed by the Communist Party of China, which feared the pro-democracy movement would spread all over the country.The Hong Kong demonstration was also threatened by the enactment of a national security law and armed intervention from the mainland.In Chinese, the demonstration is called a demonstration parade, and it uses Chinese characters meaning marching while demonstrating its power.If the demonstrations are tolerated and the pro-democracy movement is successful, China will fall apart and disintegrate in the air.
The Hong Kong demonstration has been reported as an incident in which rioters were suppressed in China.If Taiwan becomes independent, the shock in China will be immeasurable.
I think Taiwan and China are different countries, but they are different in China.Taiwan is recognized as part of China.Taiwan's independence means that China's one country, two systems, such as Hong Kong and Macau, will become independent.The impact of this incident on China is expected to be enormous.Considering the impact of Taiwan's independence on other ethnic areas and autonomous regions, the Chinese government is on high alert.Uighur and Tibet are China's resource areas.If foreigners leave China, it will be a serious blow to China's economy.
The Chinese think face is important.If you lose your face, you'll blush and get angry.The territorial issue is a disgrace to China.In response to Chiang Kai-shek's attempt to resolve the Rohgyo Bridge incident peacefully with Japan, Mao Zedong criticized it as a weak stance and advertised it to the people and entered the Sino-Japanese War.In response to Japan's nationalization of the Senkaku Islands, Xi criticized former President Hu Jintao for trying to settle the matter peacefully and withdrew him from his post.For China, the loss of territory or independence is a great loss to the face of the Communist Party government.Xi's obsession with Taiwan is immeasurable.
In addition to Taiwan, China also has areas that sing one country, two systems, including Hong Kong and Macau, and autonomous regions such as Inner Mongolia, Guangxi Chihuang, Tibet, Xinjiang Uighur, and Ningxiahui.
Democratic Progressive Party Lai Qingtoku wins Taiwan presidential election | If pro - China forces win, the Taiwan Strait will become China's property.
With the Democratic Progressive Party's victory, how does President Xi Jinping view the results in China? The result was an overwhelming victory for Taiwan's independence force, the Democratic Progressive Party. Looking at the Taiwanese parliament, the Kuomintang has made a comeback, giving the impression that the Taiwanese people have given orders to the Democratic Progressive Party when it comes to domestic policy. The Kuomintang has 52 seats, the Democratic Party has 51, and the People's Party has 8. The Taiwanese people are no longer pro-China as a national polity, and perhaps because they have doubts about domestic politics, looking at the number of seats, it seems likely that the People's Party will hold the casting board when it comes to legislation.
In the first place, the victory of the pro-independence Democratic Party in the presidential election can be said to be a major achievement. The Taiwanese People's Party was viewed as a force that could divide votes. The Democratic People's Party's position is that it maintains peace through dialogue with both China and the United States, but to be clear, the Taiwan issue is not connected to the US-China conflict, but is rather an issue within the US-China conflict. The reality is that Taiwan exists in China, and on the other hand, I don't think Taiwan can act as a bridge between China and the United States.
Looking at the theme of war from a different perspective, this election was a fight between the Kuomintang and the People's Party to avoid war, and the Democratic Party to protect democracy even in the event of war. This is probably the correct answer. It is said that the decisions of young people will have a large impact on the outcome of this election, just like the last one, and the voting age will be lowered to 18 in 2023. Taking note of this, the Chinese Communist Party has been threatening you, saying that in the event of war, you, the young people, will be the ones who die.
The focus of this election was on what kind of decisions young people would make amidst this intimidation and coaxing. The Democratic Progressive Party's theme was ``choosing between dictatorship and democracy.'' As a result, table splitting fails in the opposite direction. If the theme is war, if you add up the factions that advocated war avoidance, that side will be the majority. Of course, the issue of China was not the only theme in the presidential election, but in the end, the Democratic Progressive Party won, with the votes split among those calling for war avoidance and reconciliation with China.
It goes without saying that Japan would prefer a victory for the Democratic Party. I have nothing but doubts about the Japanese media, which has not shown much interest in the Taiwanese election even though it says that the Taiwanese emergency is a Japanese emergency. A lieutenant general from a Chinese military think tank recently said that the Senkaku Islands are also on the horizon for an invasion of Taiwan, and if the pro-China faction wins the election, China will control the Taiwan Strait, an area through which oil tankers, Japan's lifeline, pass. This is because it suppresses the If that happens, Japan will continue to be threatened by China semi-permanently.
Taiwan Strait seen from the withdrawal of Kyiv - Will Taiwan be able to defend itself? Submarine lurking in the Taiwan Strait. Russia withdraws from Kyiv without taking air superiority
Russia is expected to abandon the capture of Kieu and head for Mariupol and later Odessa. The reason why Kyiv's capture failed is probably that he could not take air superiority. The Army marched on and continued to be bombarded even though it could not take air superiority. It will be China who is watching this battle carefully. Most Chinese weapons are modifications of the former Soviet Union and were obtained from Ukraine. You may be appalled about how well it works with the state-of-the-art weapons of the Western world.
It's even harder to cross the Taiwan Strait
Ukraine is a land-based invasion of neighboring countries, and it is difficult to capture Taiwan because of the Taiwan Strait. Can China take control of Taiwan? Even if they take air superiority, the Chinese army must cross the Taiwan Strait using an amphibious ship to land. The problem is the command of the sea. President Tsai Ing-wen began building his first submarine in Kaohsiung in November 2020. A total of eight ships are planned to be built, and the test voyage is scheduled for 2025. If the submarine is in the Taiwan Strait, the Chinese landing ship will be sunk by an invisible enemy. China has vehemently opposed this plan.
Will Taiwan be able to defend itself?
Before that, if we see the withdrawal of Kyiv, it is more likely that China will not be able to take air superiority. The key is likely to be an unmanned attack aircraft. Although China has an unmanned attack aircraft, its performance is inferior to that made in Russia. With the reinforcement of a large number of unmanned attack aircraft and surface-to-air missiles from the United States, and the purchase of submarines from the United States, it seems that considerable defense is possible just by providing weapons without the participation of the United States. Of note is the performance of the submarines manufactured by Taiwan. Chinese submarines are noisy and are often detected and surfaced from Japan. If you can find it and you can't find it, you can sink your opponent's submarine.Chinese troops cannot land in Taiwan without taking command of the sea.
Mr. Xi Jinping believes that Taiwan's independence is the trigger for his invasion of Taiwan - The timing of Taiwan's independence and the influence of elections in each country.
The term of office of the Chinese president is five years. In 2018, China's National People's Congress lifted the 10-year limit for two terms, making it possible for candidates to be re-elected as many times as they like. Xi Jinping is currently in his second term, and his term ends in 2023. Regarding the timing, if any, of China's invasion of Taiwan, in January 2021, the Chinese Minister of Defense made in-depth statements that Taiwan's independence would mean war. At the recent U.S.-China summit, Xi Jinping said, ``If Taiwan's independence forces cross the line, we will take decisive measures.''
In other words, the timing is Taiwan's independence. So, regardless of what kind of action or state one considers independence, Taiwan satisfies all the substantive requirements for becoming a state under international law. All that remains is to draft a declaration of independence and declare it to the international community as an independent country. The question is at what timing it will be done.
Regarding this, President Tsai Ing-wen has stated that Taiwan is "already independent," indicating that she has no intention of drafting a declaration of independence. Taiwan's 2024 presidential election will be held the year after Xi Jinping begins his third term. The Democratic Progressive Party candidates advocate Taiwan's independence, which means that Taiwan is not yet independent, which is a very different nuance from President Tsai Ing-wen's ``already independent'' statement.
If the Democratic Progressive Party candidate becomes Taiwan's president in 2024, there is a high possibility that he will draft a declaration of independence during his term. Xi Jinping, aiming for a third term, will support the Kuomintang, the opposition force to Taiwan's ruling party, and seek to become Taiwan's president. Obsessed with elections. The Nationalist Party is a pro-China party. 2024 is also the year of the US presidential election. Based on President Tsai Ing-wen's idea that the country is "already independent," it is unlikely that a declaration of independence will be drafted under the Tsai Ing-wen administration or the Biden administration.
Taiwan's presidential election and the US presidential election will begin in 2024, and Xi Jinping's third term will begin in 2023. It will be interesting to see if there is any movement after this time.
Since the term of office of Taiwan's president is four years, the term of office of the next president will expire in 2028, which will be Xi Jinping's fourth term. Xi Jinping will need to see results by at least 2027 to be re-elected to a fourth term. This timing is the 6th year that Commander Davidson said that war would occur within 6 years. If the US Republican Party wins in 2024, the situation will change dramatically.
The timing of Taiwan's declaration of independence may have a great deal to do with the elections in the three countries.
Democracy in Taiwan
At the first-ever Sino-Taiwan summit in November 2015, President Ma Ying-jeou and Xi Jinping confirmed that mainland China and Taiwan belong to China and maintain the "one China" principle and the "ninety-two common knowledge."The birth of President Tsai Ying was in May 2016, so it happened only half a year ago.
President Lee Teng-hui's "two countries" (China and Taiwan are different countries) were easily overturned here, returning to the position of one country, two systems, and one China.With the birth of President Tsai Ying-cheng and the current trend of leaving China, Taiwan's independence theory is still in its infancy.The dramatic reversal of Tsai's re-election in 2020 is that the Kuomintang candidate had a higher approval rating until just before.
Taiwan's first direct presidential election was in 1996.It's been about 25 years.
Biden said, "China should have a good conversation with Taiwan's democratically elected leader.I said.What does this mean?In Taiwan's presidential election in 2024, the Democratic Progressive Party and the Kuomintang received 28.3 percent and 21.9 percent respectively.Historically, Taiwan has been leaning toward China or moving toward independence, but this pendulum-like problem will continue as long as it holds elections as a democratic country.Only the annexation of China or the declaration of independence can end the problem.The Biden administration is in favor of "one China policy."
China's "one China principle " and the United States' "one China policy " are different.China regards Taiwan as part of China's "one China principle," the U.S. "one China policy" means recognizing China's representative government as the People's Republic of China, not Taiwan as part of China.It is only acknowledged that China is making such a claim.At first glance, East Asia's policies seem to follow Trump's, but they are fundamentally different.It also implicitly conveys that if the pro-China faction wins again in Taiwan, the U.S. will not interfere.
If Taiwan does not specify independence, it will be asked whether it will reach China or independence every election, and that will be an opportunity for China to take advantage of it.
