Internationally important elections will be held in ２０２４ - Japanese politics will be greatly influenced by these.
2023-12-26
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2024 is an election year
２０２４ is X-year. The US presidential election will be followed by the Taiwanese presidential election, Russian presidential election, and South Korean general election. The Russian presidential election is likely to be a close call, but everything else will have a big impact on Japan.
The Nationalist Party follows the ruling Democratic Progressive Party
In Taiwan's presidential election, the ruling Democratic Progressive Party has a slight lead, with the Kuomintang and People's Party trailing behind. The third party, the People's Party, has many points in common with the Democratic Progressive Party, but it is a strange party in that it receives political donations from China. There is no movement yet, but if the Kuomintang and the People's Party join together at the last minute, the Democratic Progressive Party will be completely defeated.
Kuomintang is a pro-China party
The Nationalist Party has made it clear that it will maintain the ９２ common sense, which means that it will maintain the "one China principle." If pro-China forces win, the result will likely be the same as in Hong Kong.
Read it together
Under the United Nations resolution on Albania, China's representative government becomes the People's Republic of China - national representation as a permanent member of the United Nations Security
National representation rights claimed by both sides
Taiwan withdraws from the United Nations as a result of this resolution
Japan and the US tried to prevent Taiwan's expulsion from the UN
Taiwan is just a common name
US supports Taiwan's membership in international organizations
China expands interpretation of Albania resolution
The issue of one China began when the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China fought over the right to represent China as a permanent member of the United Nations at the United Nations following a civil war. At that time, the Republic of China was a member of the United Nations as a permanent member of the United Nations.
As a result of the 1971 Albania Resolution recognizing the People's Republic of China as the representative member state of the United Nations, the Republic of China withdrew from the United Nations. In advance, Japan and the United States tried to persuade Taiwan to voluntarily decline the right to represent China, but Chiang Kai-shek was not convinced.
One China claimed not only China but also Taiwan. Taiwan was the first to claim the Senkaku Islands before China.
In response to the Albania resolution, the United States proposed a dual representation resolution and Japan proposed an important issue resolution against expulsion to the United Nations. As a result, the Albania Resolution was passed, and the People's Republic of China was to take over the power of representation, eliminating Taiwan's seat.
The problem might have been different if Taiwan had withdrawn its representation rights and applied for recognition as a separate country at the same time.
What we now call Taiwan is not the official name of the country; its official name is the Republic of China. Taiwan is a common name that means the name of the region. At the Olympic Games, it was called Chinese Taipei, and Japan's NHK called it Tiwan, which became a hot topic, but the country's name itself is internationally connected to the United Nations issue.
Based on the above circumstances, the United Nations has simply recognized the People's Republic of China as the representative government of China, and since the Republic of China has withdrawn from the United Nations, this does not mean that the United Nations does not recognize the country.
The United States has said it will support Taiwan's participation in international organizations. U.S. Republican Rep. Jim Risch said that China is expanding the interpretation of the Albania resolution.
Conversely, the basis for China's insistence on excluding Taiwan from the international community is the 1971 Albania resolution.
The United States has criticized China for abusing the Albania resolution by expanding its interpretation. China is pressuring other countries to prevent Taiwan from participating in international organizations.
Leftists are dominant in South Korea
South Korea's president is said to be a right-wing national force, but the majority of the National Assembly is left-wing and both Democrats. The majority of the National Assembly will be the pro-China, pro-North Korea, anti-American, anti-Japanese parties we witnessed during the Moon Jae-in era. If this party wins the general election, an anti-Japanese leftist president will be elected again in the next presidential election.
Will Trump be re-elected?
The big event in ２０２４ will be the US presidential election. If Biden, the Democratic Party of the United States, were to win here, the environment surrounding Japan would shift to the left, and Japan's cabinet would also become left-handed. China's One Belt, One Road initiative may end in failure, but the Free and Open Indo-Pacific concept advocated by former Prime Minister Abe will also become a mere shell.
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If the world turns right-handed
On the other hand, if the Democratic Progressive Party wins in Taiwan, the power of the people wins in South Korea, and Trump becomes President of the United States, will Japanese politics become right-wing? At that time, the Indo-Pacific concept will progress and a prime minister will be needed to take over the initiative. Is today's Japan simply being swept away without being able to exert its influence even in Asia?
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Study abroad boom in Japan at the end of the Qing Dynasty - The Korean peninsula missed the chance to modernize, and China failed to inherit the revolutionary spirit and plunged into civil war.
Japan study abroad boom in China
Studying in Japan begins with 13 students
Korea became an independent nation in the Sino-Japanese War
The Korean Peninsula missed the chance to modernize
Even after the Qing Dynasty fell, the revolutionary spirit was not inherited
Wang Zhaoming government established after the Sino-Japanese War
In China, a boom in studying abroad in Japan arose after the Sino-Japanese War. The purpose of studying abroad was to learn about Japan's modernization and policy of enriching the country and strengthening its military. Emperor Guangxu, Kang Youwei, and other Chinese intellectuals carried out the Restoration movement of ``transformation and self-strength,'' but it was thwarted by the pressure of conservative forces. Subsequently, educational reforms at the time were modeled on Japan, including the abolition of the imperial examination system (1905), the establishment of the modern school system (1904), the promulgation of the "Educational Philosophy" (1906), and the trial of compulsory education (1907). This is what we sought.
In 1896, for the first time, 13 young people were sent by the Qing Dynasty government to study in Japan, where they studied Japanese, chemistry, physics, mathematics, and other subjects for three years at the Tokyo National Higher Normal School's cram school. It is said that approximately 20,000 international students had come to Japan by the time of the Xinhai Revolution in 1911.
Political figures include Zhou Enlai, Li Dabei, Chen Duxiu, Wei Bei, Dong Yiwu, Chiang Kai-shek, Man Zhongshi, and Wang Zhaomei. Sun Yat-sen came to Japan as an exile in 1895. Cultural figures included Lu Xun, Guo Muruo, Tian Han, and He Xianggong.
While Joseon Dynasty was aiming for Chinese-style modernization, the Sino-Japanese War broke out in the wake of the Gongbo Peasants' War, and with Japan's victory, the Korean Peninsula became an independent nation. Kim Ok-gyun, who called for Japanese-style modernization, was assassinated about four months before the Sino-Japanese War began.
The movement of modernization on the Korean Peninsula was actually faster than in China. However, it did not become a big sensation and was crushed by the Joseon Dynasty, which had an old political system. Ironically, this was also due to pro-China policies. On the other hand, immediately after losing the Sino-Japanese War, China changed its policy toward Japanese-style modernization. Koten Miyazaki describes Kim Ok-gyun, who was exiled to Japan and was assassinated in Shanghai, as a person who should have become the Sun Yat-sen of the Korean Peninsula. Miyazaki, along with Takeshi Inukai and others, supported Sun Yat-sen's Xinhai Revolution. The Korean Peninsula has failed to modernize on its own.
As a result, in 1911, Sun Yat-sen succeeded in the Xinhai Revolution and founded the Republic of China, but as a condition of Emperor Xuantong's abdication, he made an exchange deal in which Yuan Shikai, a Beiyang warlord, became president, and the Qing dynasty ended. became increasingly authoritarian. A second revolution will begin to overthrow this. Even after the Northern Expedition was completed and Chiang Kai-shek became the president of the Nationalist Party, the division of China in the West continued. The spirit of Sun Yat-sen's revolution was to learn from Japan's Restoration and to stand together with the West and maintain our independence.
As the partition of China progressed, the Sino-Japanese War broke out, and the spirit of revolution was inherited by Wang Zhaoming's Nanjing Provisional Government. He was a close aide to Sun Yat-sen, had the experience of studying abroad in Japan, and participated in the Greater East Asia Conference. Over a long period of time, China failed in its revolution. On the contrary, the civil war between the People's Republic of China continued, and the People's Republic of China with a completely different ideology was born, not to mention Sun Yat-sen's revolution. The Japanese Restoration that Sun Yat-sen aimed for was not only about modernization, but also about achieving a rich nation and strong military in Asia, and protecting its independence from becoming a Western colony.
Japan is the only country with people of color that has succeeded in modernizing itself. It was only natural for Asian countries to learn from Japan in order to modernize.
Prime Minister Kishida sends off his visit to Yasukuni Shrine - a place beyond Japan's sovereignty.
I will not visit Yasukuni again this year
Current Prime Minister visited Yasukuni Shrine after the war
Where no incumbent national leader can step foot?
Yasukuni Shrine is not a border issue
Violation of national sovereignty, not historical issues
Historical issues cannot be resolved without sovereignty
Prime Minister Kishida refrained from visiting Yasukuni Shrine and paid the tamagushi fee with his own funds. Some people in other countries even think that Yasukuni Shrine is located outside of Japan. This is because the leaders of a country cannot imagine that there are public places within their country that they cannot set foot in.
[Current Prime Minister who visited Yasukuni Shrine after the war]
The 43rd King Higashikuninomiya Toshihiko
The 44th Kijuro Shidehara
45th, 48th-51st Shigeru Yoshida
56th-57th Nobusuke Kishi
58th-60th Hayato Ikeda
61st-63rd Eisaku Sato
64th-65th Kakuei Tanaka
66th Takeo Miki
The 67th Takeo Fukuda
68th-69th Masayoshi Ohira
70th Yoshiyuki Suzuki
71st-73rd Yasuhiro Nakasone
82nd-83rd Ryutaro Hashimoto
87th-89th Junichiro Koizumi
90th and 96th Shinzo Abe
Will President Xi Jinping be able to visit Taiwan? I wonder if it can't be done? People from outside would normally think that if it can't be done in the first place, then it's not China. A sitting president cannot set foot in certain parts of the United States. Everyone would think that this is an area beyond the reach of American sovereignty.
In areas and islands with territorial disputes near borders, there are places where national leaders cannot set foot. In Japan, these include Takeshima, the Senkaku Islands, and the Northern Territories. However, former South Korean President Lee Myung-bak has landed on Takeshima, and former Russian Prime Minister Medvedev has visited Etorofu Island. Their only purpose is to assert national sovereignty.
Let's say that the reason the Japanese prime minister does not visit these areas is to avoid border disputes. But Yasukuni Shrine is located in Tokyo, the capital of Japan.
Before discussing what the Yasukuni issue is, the problem is that it obscures the fact that it is under the sovereignty of the Japanese state. In other words, other countries are restricting Japan's sovereignty by giving orders to the current leader, the prime minister, to visit public facilities in the capital of Japan. Yasukuni Shrine is originally a Japanese religious facility within Japan, and anyone is welcome to visit it.
Whether or not it is a problem because it enshrines a class A war criminal is not for other countries to decide in the first place. This can also be said to be Japan's decision under its sovereignty as a nation. It would be different if Yasukuni Shrine was located in China or South Korea.
Notes, condolence telegrams, and messages of condolence from leaders of various countries regarding the death of former Prime Minister Abe (added sequentially)
We will only post articles by current and past heads of state, prime ministers, etc. I will omit things at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs level. Since condolences also include posts on SNS, they will be written as "notebook," "condolence telegram," and "condolence message."
President Biden [United States of America] (bookkeeper)"It's a loss, not just to my family and the people of Japan, but to the world. A man of peace and decency, you will be missed." li>
Former President Trump [United States] (condolences)``His assassination is unforgivable. It's not just an atrocity, it's a tremendous loss to the entire world.'' ``He was a great leader. "A tough negotiator." "He has worked tirelessly for peace, freedom, and the irreplaceable bond between the United States and Japan." "I hope that we will pay a swift and heavy price for robbing the Earth of a great being. I wish.”
President Putin [Russia] (condolence telegram)“Respected Yoko AbeRespected Akie AbeYour son and husband Shinzo Abe We would like to express our deepest condolences on the passing of Mr. An outstanding politician who led the Japanese government for a long period of time at the hands of criminals and left many achievements in the development of good neighborly relations between Russia and Japan. I had regular contact with Shinzo, where his great personal and professional qualities were in full bloom.My memories of this remarkable man are the same as his. will remain forever in the hearts of everyone who knew him.With respect, Vladimir Putin"
President Tsai Ing-wen [Taiwan] (colored paper notes)“Taiwan’s eternal good friend, your contribution to Taiwan-Japan friendship and to democracy, freedom, human rights, and peace around the world. Thank you.”
Queen Elizabeth [Commonwealth] (condolence address to His Majesty the Emperor)“Our family is deeply saddened by the sudden and painful passing of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. It was clear that he loved him and wanted to strengthen his ties with Britain even closer than ever before. My deepest sympathies and sympathies go out to his family and to everyone in Japan."
Prime Minister Boris Johnson [United Kingdom] (Condolences)“Very sad news about former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.The global leadership he demonstrated during these unprecedented times is... He will be remembered by many. Our thoughts are with former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's family, friends and the people of Japan. Britain stands with you at this dark and sad time."
President Xi Jinping [China] (Condolences, Condolences)“On behalf of the Chinese government and the Chinese people, and in my own name, I would like to express my condolences to the untimely death of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. We express our ``deepest condolences'' and extend our condolences to Prime Minister Abe's bereaved family. "I once reached an important agreement with him on building Sino-Japanese relations that meet the requirements of a new era. I deeply regret his sudden death." "I will continue to work with the Prime Minister. We would like to continue to develop good neighborly relations and friendly cooperation between Japan and China in accordance with the principles established in the four Japan-China political documents.''
Prime Minister Modi [India] (Condolences)“I am shocked and saddened beyond words by the tragic passing of one of my closest friends. "He was a world-class statesman and an outstanding leader." "We met again on a recent visit to Japan and discussed many issues. He was as witty and insightful as always. I never expected it to happen.'' ``To express our deep respect to Mr. Abe, the nation will mourn on the 9th.''
President Phuc [Vietnam] (Book)“We deeply mourn Mr. Shinzo Abe, a leader of international renown and a great and dear friend of Vietnam.”
Former President Duterte [Philippines] (Condolences)``I feel extremely regretful and deeply saddened to learn of the untimely death of my dear friend, former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.'' I join the people of Japan in mourning the death of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and condemn this senseless act of violence." "Former Prime Minister Abe was not only the first foreign leader to visit the Philippines after my presidential election, but he also visited Davao City. He was also the only foreign leader to visit my home in Japan.'' ``I will always feel that former Prime Minister Abe is close to my heart, and I will cherish the time we spent together.''
Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong [Singapore] (condolences)``I just had lunch with Mr. Abe in Tokyo in May.'' ``I am deeply shocked and saddened.'' .”
Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha [Kingdom of Thailand] (condolences)``He was talented, intelligent, and experienced,'' ``He played an important role in promoting friendly relations between the two countries,'' ``For many years, Over the years, he has worked to strengthen the relationship between Japan and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).''
President Joko Widodo [Indonesia] (Condolences)“We offer our deepest condolences to the deceased former Prime Minister Abe.”
Prime Minister Hun Sen [Cambodia] (condolences)``I am deeply shocked and deeply saddened'' ``Mr. Abe was an outstanding figure who contributed to peace, stability and prosperity in the region. Politician.''
President Yun Seok-Yeol [South Korea] (condolence telegram)“I would like to express my condolences to the bereaved family and the Japanese people for the loss of a respected politician who was the longest-serving prime minister in the history of Japanese constitutional history. I would like to express my condolences.'' → What does it mean to be respected? This sparks huge criticism within South Korea.
``Forever good friend of Taiwan
Thank you for your friendship with Taiwan and your contributions to democracy, freedom, human rights, and peace around the world.
Tsai Ing-wen 2022/7/11”
(Colored paper written at the time of condolence) pic.twitter.com/VZFcnd9hfQ? Taiwan in Japan 台北駐日経済文化代表処 (@Taiwan_in_Japan) July 11, 2022
Japan was attacked by a coalition of Chinese and Korean forces.Japanese troops were sent to defeat China.
Genkou refers to the invasion of Japan by the Chinese Yuan and the Goryeo army.There are also theories that Khabirai Khan intended to invade Japan, and that King Goryeo incited Khabirai to attack Japan.The two expeditions ended in failure when a Chinese ship sank due to a storm called kamikaze.
After that, Japan entered the Warring States Period and entered a turbulent period.Oda Nobunaga, a genius, was not only good at fighting but also sensitive to the international situation.Literature at that time revealed that urgent Japan's unification was carried out because it predicted that there would definitely be another invasion from the continent.He then told Toyotomi Hideyoshi about it.The enemy will surely come from the continent.
The purpose of Hideyoshi's dispatch to Korea was Ming, China.South Korea is said to have been attacked by Japan, but North Korea is not the purpose.As a result, the Ming army's counterattack on the Liaodong Peninsula led to a stalemate in the war situation, skepticism about the merits of Japan's rule of vast land with different cultural customs, and the death of Toyotomi Hideyoshi.
If Japan had captured Ming at this time, the Japanese era would have been born in the era of different ethnic countries such as Sui, Tang, Yuan and Qing.Relations with Japan, the Korean Peninsula, and China have become clear in this era.It will come to light again in the next Sino-Japanese War.The Korean Peninsula exists between Japan and China and has not been an autonomous country in history.
Historically, Korea has been part of China.Although it exists as a liberal country, its dependence on China remains the same.
Continuing attacks on the Gaza Strip - What is the definition of a civilian? | The atomic bomb was dropped without any warning.
Regarding the conflict in the Gaza Strip and the invasion of Ukraine, I understand that the concept of war criminals under international law is extremely weak, but I would like to ask about the definitions of civilians, civilian facilities, military personnel, and military facilities. After these wars are over, the international community will need to be redefined.
According to the Second Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, Americans are members of the National Guard and are allowed to own firearms according to the Constitution's interpretation. Are they civilians or soldiers? For example, in South Korea, where a conscription system is in place, those who have completed their conscription period are registered as reservists. Are they civilians or soldiers?
In the Nanjing Incident, the commander of the Kuomintang army fled, and the Kuomintang army changed into civilian clothes and fled into a private house, where they fought using civilians as shields, but were they civilians or soldiers? I wonder if the private house they barricaded themselves in had become a military facility at that point. Or will it still be a private house?
At the Tokyo Trials, Rabe testified that the Japanese military did not fire on the Nanjing Safety Zone, calling the Japanese invasion a massacre. Civilians in Nanjing were able to escape to the Nanjing Safety Zone, which was demarcated by international law. The Gaza Strip is approximately 50km from north to south, and evacuation to the south would take up to 25km, making it possible to evacuate in one day.
Is the human shield a civilian or a soldier? At the very least, are they risking their lives to protect their homes? Are they civilians or soldiers?
In other words, the international law that judged Japan in the past is weak to this extent, and even today it criticizes the killing of civilians based on this idea, but does not deny wars based on the exercise of the right of self-defense. I'm watching this battle in it. What should be answered is a clear division between civilians and soldiers.
It is said that there were 122 air raids on Tokyo, but each time did the US military notify Japanese civilians that they were about to carry out an air raid? Or, before the atomic bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, a bomb of another dimension will be dropped that will cause damage over a wide area. Did Truman tell them that it would be difficult to survive there? If it had been done, would Japanese civilians at the time have been evacuated or would they have remained to fight?
Such international laws only have a deterrent effect and have no meaning in actual war.
