Why did President Tsai Ing - wen invite Kyoto Tachibana High School to the Double Ten Festival? - Taiwan's future entrusted to future generations.
2022-10-27
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Kyoto Tachibana High School where Taiwan is crazy
Regarding why Kyoto Tachibana High School's brass band (Orange Devil) was invited to Taiwan's National Foundation Day ceremony, President Tsai Ing-wen looked ahead to the presidential election in ２０２４ and asked the next generation who will have the right to vote at that time. It appears that Kyoto Tachibana High School was entrusted with a strong message. In the last presidential election in Taiwan, President Tsai Ing-wen came from behind to win despite being at an overwhelming disadvantage. The Taiwan Democratic Progressive Party itself analyzes that the reason for this is that young people are heading to the polls. It is said that the younger generation in Taiwan is starting to develop a sense of democratic values.
Japan's national defense and the Taiwan Strait issue are inseparable
Japan should think more seriously about its national defense. There is no objection to considering the Taiwan Strait as an issue that is inseparable from Japan's national defense. What is needed to achieve this is strengthening Japan-US relations and discussing constitutional revision. But is that enough?
Taiwan's democratization is a recent event
Taiwan's democratization began with the direct election of the president in １９９６. It was written by former President Lee Teng-hui, who passed away recently. Has Taiwan followed the path of democratization smoothly since then? The first summit meeting between China and Taiwan was held under former President Ma Ying-jeou before President Tsai Ing-wen. There, former President Ma Ying-jeou and Xi Jinping held a meeting, reaffirming the ９２ joint formula and returning to the one-China principle. That was in ２０１５.
Danger of being swallowed up by China in the next election
Although Taiwan is a young democratic country, it is on the verge of strong growth. If the Democratic Progressive Party loses in the ２０２４ presidential election, Taiwan, one of the few democratic countries in Asia, may never smile again. Xi Jinping will try to intervene in Taiwan's presidential election in every possible way.
Japan should convey the value of democracy
Kyoto Tachibana High School showed that there are many things Japan can do. Our goal is to show young Taiwanese through a variety of content that on the path to democracy there is a world where free people can realize their dreams. Taiwan considers Japan to be its democratic predecessor. The Japanese media, which should be primarily responsible for this, seems to be controlled by China.
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The right of collective self-defense assumes a Taiwanese emergency - Former Prime Minister Aso mentioned the possibility that an invasion of Taiwan would extend to the waters near the Senkaku Islands.
On July 5, former Prime Minister Aso gave a speech in Tokyo, stating that if China were to invade Taiwan, it would be recognized as an ``existence-endangering situation'' under national security-related laws, and the right of collective self-defense could be exercised to a limited extent. He acknowledged that it was possible. Currently, Japan does not recognize Taiwan as a state, so Taiwan itself is outside the scope of the right of collective self-defense, but both China and Taiwan claim territorial rights to the Senkaku Islands, and China has made an armed invasion of Taiwan. It can be interpreted to include the Senkaku Islands if a naval blockade of Taiwan is implemented.
Will the premise be that the right of collective self-defense will be exercised under the condition that the United States enters the war, or will the Japan-U.S. alliance be activated while Japan exercises its right of self-defense in the event of a naval blockade? Is it? The United States uses the name Taiwan as a military name. The Biden administration has announced that there will be no change in its interpretation of the One China Policy. On the other hand, Japan has confirmed that the defense of the Senkaku Islands falls within the scope of the Japan-US Security Treaty. Regarding the defense of Taiwan, although the U.S.-Taiwan Relations Act mentions the provision of weapons, it does not specify whether the U.S. military will be involved in the defense of Taiwan, leaving some ambiguity.
If China were to invade Taiwan, there is a possibility that Japan would join the war, assuming that the U.S. military would join the war.
Considering the meaning of Deputy Prime Minister Aso's remarks, it is unlikely that they will be put into action unless they include military exercises between Japan, the United States, and Taiwan. Without military exercises, there is no way that the right of collective self-defense would be accompanied by the power to implement it. This will be a major focus in the future. We may see the Self-Defense Forces entering Taiwan for military exercises.
The US military has announced that it is conducting joint military exercises with Taiwan. It is not possible to create an action plan without conducting military exercises on-site to determine what kind of operations could be carried out in the terrain and environment of Taiwan's west coast in the event of an actual battle. There needs to be a concrete discussion about what is necessary for Japan to exercise its right of collective self-defense.
In order to exercise the right of collective self-defense, the Self-Defense Forces will need military training that simulates the Taiwan Strait in order to function effectively.
From the perspective of Ukraine war, Taiwan is same case emergency.What position should we take on Taiwan?
What would happen if we looked at the Taiwan issue in response to NATO's unilateral move to the military demarcation line by joining Ukraine?The Japanese media have put Russia and China on the same page, and what if China invades Taiwan like Russia?Is this really the only way to build a theory?Why don't Japan and the U.S. want Taiwan to belong to China?This is because China want to shifted dramatically the military demarcation line.
In Japan, lawmakers argue that if Taiwan is taken, it will be the Senkaku Islands.In the Albanian resolution, the United Nations decided to make the People's Republic of China the representative government of China.The U.S. and Japan agree that the issue of representation itself does not mean that Taiwan will lose its independence, but neither Japan nor the U.S. has no agreement on document, and has no diplomatic relations with Taiwan and has not approved it.This is the basis for China's claim that Taiwan is China.Currently, only 15 countries have diplomatic relations with Taiwan.Among them, only 13 countries expressed their support for Taiwan's participation at the U.N. General Assembly in September 2021, without Japan and the United States.
In this case, the policy that Taiwan would be separated from China, recognized independently, established diplomatic relations, and signed a treaty with allies are similar to Russia's plan to protect Lugansk and Donetsk.On the contrary, China, like Ukraine, will criticize the U.S. and Japan and send defense forces.In other words, we are sitting on the Russian side of the Taiwan issue.
Originally, Ukraine was considered a Taiwan issue, but it was a military demarcation line issue before the issue of national sovereignty.Past history has shown that unilateral changes in the military demarcation line could lead to war.What China wants to do is take over Taiwan and change the military demarcation line significantly.If NATO is in this situation, how can it defend Taiwan militarily?
It goes without saying that Japan must cooperate with the U.S. to face China in order to defend Taiwan.We need to make it clear that we will not allow changes to the military demarcation line.
Taiwan Strait seen from the withdrawal of Kyiv - Will Taiwan be able to defend itself? Submarine lurking in the Taiwan Strait. Russia withdraws from Kyiv without taking air superiority
Russia is expected to abandon the capture of Kieu and head for Mariupol and later Odessa. The reason why Kyiv's capture failed is probably that he could not take air superiority. The Army marched on and continued to be bombarded even though it could not take air superiority. It will be China who is watching this battle carefully. Most Chinese weapons are modifications of the former Soviet Union and were obtained from Ukraine. You may be appalled about how well it works with the state-of-the-art weapons of the Western world.
It's even harder to cross the Taiwan Strait
Ukraine is a land-based invasion of neighboring countries, and it is difficult to capture Taiwan because of the Taiwan Strait. Can China take control of Taiwan? Even if they take air superiority, the Chinese army must cross the Taiwan Strait using an amphibious ship to land. The problem is the command of the sea. President Tsai Ing-wen began building his first submarine in Kaohsiung in November 2020. A total of eight ships are planned to be built, and the test voyage is scheduled for 2025. If the submarine is in the Taiwan Strait, the Chinese landing ship will be sunk by an invisible enemy. China has vehemently opposed this plan.
Will Taiwan be able to defend itself?
Before that, if we see the withdrawal of Kyiv, it is more likely that China will not be able to take air superiority. The key is likely to be an unmanned attack aircraft. Although China has an unmanned attack aircraft, its performance is inferior to that made in Russia. With the reinforcement of a large number of unmanned attack aircraft and surface-to-air missiles from the United States, and the purchase of submarines from the United States, it seems that considerable defense is possible just by providing weapons without the participation of the United States. Of note is the performance of the submarines manufactured by Taiwan. Chinese submarines are noisy and are often detected and surfaced from Japan. If you can find it and you can't find it, you can sink your opponent's submarine.Chinese troops cannot land in Taiwan without taking command of the sea.
Taiwan buys evaporated milk from Lithuania, which was rejected by China. Taiwan's feelings for liberalism are real.
It was revealed on the 10th that a Taiwanese food maker bought evaporated milk from Lithuania, which was refused to be received from China. With the cooperation of the governments of Taiwan and Lithuania, about 1,000 boxes have already arrived in Taiwan . A spokesman for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Joanne Ou, announced on the 11th that he would continue to cooperate in expanding sales channels for Lithuanian products in Taiwan.
Since the establishment of Taiwan's representative agency "Taiwanese Representative Office in Lithuania" in Vilnius, the capital of Lithuania, Lithuania has been retaliated by China. China has announced that it will downgrade its diplomatic relations with Lithuania to "Chargé d'Affaires", and is increasing pressure by stalling Lithuanian products exported to China at customs clearance.
Lithuania was forced to close the Lithuanian embassy in China by establishing a Taiwan representative office.
Evaporated milk was purchased by Amada Food Technology (Hsinchu County). The amount is as much as one container. The person in charge of the company told the Central News Agency that he would make Hong Kong-style milk tea from the purchased evaporated milk and sell it to the world. The person in charge is a Hong Konger who has lived in Taiwan for more than 30 years, and when he combined Evaporated milk from Lithuania and blended tea from Sri Lanka, he said that a "nostalgic taste" was created.
The developed Hong Kong-style milk tea will be packaged in a design that incorporates the Lithuanian flag "yellow, green, red". At the same time as symbolizing Lithuania's support for Taiwan, it also wants to express the company's support for Lithuania.
Lithuanian friendship with Taiwan has been forced to close the Lithuanian embassy in China. Taiwan will deepen its friendship with Lithuania.
Xi Jinping sends a congratulatory message to Taiwan Nationalist Party Chairman Zhu Li-Lun - The purpose of shaking Taiwanese public opinion is the 2024 Taiwan presidential election.
Xi Jinping sent a telegram of congratulations to Mr. Zhu Li-Lun, who took office as the head of the Taiwan Nationalist Party on September 26th, and expressed that both parties share a common political commitment to oppose Taiwan's independence, aiming for peace in the Taiwan Strait, national reunification, and national rejuvenation. He expressed his hope for cooperation on this basis. Mr. Zhu Lilun said that in recent years, under the Democratic Progressive Party government, ``anti-China'' policies were adopted, which led to the deterioration of the situation on both sides of the strait. He responded that he opposed Taiwanese independence and wanted to deepen cooperation while respecting each other's differences. In other words, both sides confirmed that the current Taiwan Strait issue was caused by the Democratic Progressive Party, which denies the ``92 common sense'' and ``one country, two systems.''
Xi Jinping and the Nationalist Party have concluded that the Taiwan Strait issue is an issue caused by President Tsai Ing-wen and the independence faction of the Democratic Progressive Party.
Although the Biden administration's Taiwan Strait policy appears to be a continuation of the Trump administration, it is actually different. Biden, don't cause trouble while he's president. It looks like that's all he's saying. Indo-Pacific Coordinator Campbell's statement that he does not support Taiwan's independence is not the government's official position, but does this mean that even if Taiwan were to declare independence, it would not recognize it? The idea is to maintain three joint communiques.
The three joint communiqués are a compilation of the 1972 dialogue between President Nixon and Prime Minister Chou Enlai.
Let's assume that relations between China and Taiwan proceed peacefully until the next Taiwan presidential election in 2024, as Xi Jinping said. If the Democratic Progressive Party advocates Taiwan independence during the presidential election, the Kuomintang is sure to stir up public opinion by repeatedly attacking them and asking why they are making claims that would lead to war when peace has finally come. Chinese hackers will attack the PCs of Democratic Progressive Party members to sniff out scandals, and they will interfere in elections in every possible way.
Elections are only a process, not a goal. Unless a declaration of independence is drafted, this problem will arise every time Taiwan has a presidential election. The Biden administration in the United States will run until January 2025. What would it mean for Xi Jinping if Trump were to return to office? Xi Jinping has his sights firmly set on Taiwan's 2024 presidential election.
While the Taiwan Strait issue will end with Taiwan's declaration of independence, it is highly likely that it will lead to war.
