Mr. Ruri Miura said that NATO's eastern expansion was not correct - Useless fanning - Mr. Trump would have been in harmony.
2022-04-09
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Mr. Miura said that NATO's eastern expansion was incorrect.
Ruri Miura, an international political scientist, said, "It wasn't right at all" when asked "Is NATO's eastern expansion correct?" It is a view that goes against the tone of the media. In terms of content, did Russia need to provoke unnecessarily when it was not sufficiently weakened and could still lead to war as a nuclear power? Is saying. In addition, in response to the question "What if Mr. Trump was the president?", He instructed NATO not to expand eastward if he was Mr. Trump, and said that it is highly likely that he had taken Russia's request. The reason is that he is not so interested in Ukraine. At least Mr. Trump wouldn't have gone to at least the invasion of Kyiv. In other words, the United States does not have many interests in Ukraine, has weak trade relations, whould be regarded as a problem in the former Eastern Europe, and NATO does not unnecessarily stimulate it.
Japan has a calm analysis
Japan, like the United States, has little substantial relationship with Ukraine. It is necessary to look at this problem calmly apart from Western countries. Looking at the tone of the media and the internet, this war is only talked about from a sentimental point of view. As Miura pointed out in an interview, "Wars of this scale have occurred many times around the world, but why is the Ukrainian issue the only focus? It is a war between developed countries. . "
As I have posted before, Ukraine's accession to NATO was a very risky attempt to completely siege Moscow. This would require a high degree of diplomatic reconciliation, but no attempt was made. In the opposite position, if a hostile nation deploys a missile ６００ km to the capital of the United States, the United States should invade the military instantly. It is necessary to separate the argument that the war is happening now and that it must be ended as soon as possible and the argument that the cause of the war has started. However, it goes without saying that Russia's actions cannot be justified. Most importantly, the road to the end of the war will only be long if the cause of the beginning of the war is not removed.
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Under the Ukrainian Constitution, NATO and EU membership are required.Many hurdles to Ukraine's neutrality.
During the ceasefire talks between Ukraine and Russia in Turkey, Ukraine expressed its willingness to accept neutrality on the premise of establishing new security, but the problem does not appear to be easy.For one thing, Russian delegation leader Vladimir Mezinski says NATO members need to attend and agree on a joint meeting to ensure Ukraine's security.Another difficult issue is the Ukrainian Constitution.In February 2019, Ukraine revised the Constitution and revised and added the following articles.
Ukraine Constitution Article 102
The President of Ukraine is the head of state and have to act as a representative.
The President of Ukraine is a guarantor of national sovereignty, territorial integrity of Ukraine, compliance with the Constitution of Ukraine, and human rights and civil rights and freedoms.
The President of Ukraine must ensure the implementation of the State's strategic course towards full accession of Ukraine to the European Union and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.
In other words, the Constitution stipulates that NATO and EU membership are obligations that Ukrainian presidents must aim for.If the Constitution guarantees neutrality, the Ukrainian president is guilty of violation of the Constitution .It is highly likely that the negotiations itself are against the Constitution.
Article 85 provides for the implementation of a national strategic course for full membership of Ukraine in the European Union and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, and Article 116 provides for the implementation of a strategic course for membership of the EU and NATO.These are the same as amendments to Article 102.In other words, not only the president but also the diplomatic and cabinet members must make efforts to join.In other words, this constitution needs to be revised .To change the Constitution they need two-thirds of Diet members pass and hold a referendum, according to Article 156 states.
Ukraine and World War II.How far will economic sanctions stop Russia?
Countries are tightening economic sanctions against Russia's invasion of Ukraine.Russia's ruble fell to about 66 percent.Others are skeptical about whether economic sanctions will stop Russia's march and say sanctions are working.What do you think of past wars?In World War I, Germany was defeated and had to pay heavy compensation.After the Great Depression, the Nazis grew stronger in this envioroment and became the first party in Germany's economy.
After the Manchurian Incident, An ABCD encirclement network had established against Japan, and after the Nogokyo Incident, Japan's economy was completely surrounded.It is more like an economic blockade than an economic sanction.For Japan, where all supplies and oil were stopped and resources were scarce, it was like a food attack.As a result, the Nazis invaded all of Europe and Japan entered the Great East Asian War and the Pacific War.After World War II, postwar processing was based on international recognition that Germany's compensation in World War I eventually led to World War II. And China gave up its claim for compensation to Japan when diplomatic relations between China and Japan were normalized.
U.S. economic blockade against Japan
July 1939 (Showa 14) Notice of Abolition of the Japan-U.S. Trade and Navigation Treaty
In December 1939, we notified them to stop exporting aircraft gasoline manufacturing equipment and manufacturing technology rights as moral embago.
The Japan-U.S. Trade and Navigation Treaty expired in January 1940
June 1940 (Showa 15) Export license system for special machine tools, etc. to Japan
In July 1940, the Defense Enhancement Promotion Act was enacted (the president's authority to select export items)
July 26, 1940 (Showa 15) Enacted the Export Control Act on Steel and Steel Export Cutting Oil
August 1940 Export license system for petroleum products (mainly aviation fuel with octane value of 87 or higher), tetraethyl lead, iron and scrap iron for aviation gasoline addition
August 1940: Total embargo on aircraft fuel outside the Western Hemisphere
September 1940: Total embargo on scrap iron
December 1940 Export license system for aircraft lubricating oil manufacturing equipment and 15 other items
Oil export license system in June 1941
July 1941 Order for Freezing Japanese Assets in the United States
August 1941: Total oil embargo on JapanList Excerpt Wikipedia
It is unclear how the economic sanctions against Russia will work, but it is highly likely that the war will accelerate in the face of national survival.Or Russia may start to compensate for its economic losses by merging Moldova and Georgia, not just Ukraine.Can North Korea explain what it is doing under U.N. economic sanctions?Ironically, it was war that ended the war.Or eliminate the cause of the war.
The world seems to be doing exactly what was done 100 years ago.Russia says it will not stop the war until it completes its operation.
Poland's supply of fighter jets is in trouble.Ukraine says it will accept neutrality.
Poland's plan to supply Soviet-made fighter jets to Ukraine seems to be in trouble.The Polish government announced on August 8 that it would hand over fighter jets to the U.S. and provide them to Ukraine via the U.S., but the U.S. expressed its intention not to accept Poland's proposal for fear of Russian opposition.
The Ukrainian Air Force announced on August 1 that it would receive 28 MiG-29s from Poland, but Poland later denied the infomation handing them over.Poland's attempt to provide Mig-29 via the U.S. due to pressure from Russia but The U.S. rejected .Romania has been threatened by Russia, saying it recognizes Ukraine's use of the airport .It is clear that Europe is still supplying weapons to Ukraine, and fighter jets are one of its weapons, but is it different to say that fighter jets or air force aid?
Ukraine asked NATO to set up a no-fly zone, but NATO refused.The establishment of a no-fly zone means NATO's deployment of fighter jets to shoot down Russian aircraft, which means NATO's participation in the war.Ukraine's demand to do something about intensifying air strikes was not met, and furthermore, it is difficult to provide fighter jets from Poland.
Zelensky's ruling party, "People's Servant," announced on August 8 if neighboring countries, including NATO and Russia, will guarantee Ukraine's security and neutrality, Ukraine will accept the order of Russian neutrality .However, it is unclear how the negotiations will proceed as Russia demands Total abolition of Ukraine's army and Ukraine refuses to recognize the independence of Donetsk and the People's Republic of Lugansk.
In conclusion, after the Crimean crisis, Ukraine's intention to join NATO is a security issue, but if NATO and Russia guarantee Ukraine's neutrality and security, there will be no need to stick to NATO membership.And this may have been something to be negotiated before the war.The only solution to the issue is to treat Ukraine as a buffer zone and maintain peacefully.But the war has already begun, and the problem is much more complicated than before.Ukraine's ruling party's intentions are premised on negotiations between NATO and Russia.
If Ukraine is guaranteed peace as a neutral region, Russia will not be adjacent to NATO and will meet Russia's original requirements.
Putin recognized Ukraine's pro - Russian forces independence. This is the mean that Russia will not to attack Ukraine.
On February 22, Putin recognized the independence of the People's Republic of Lugansk and the People's Republic of Ukraine.The Minsk Agreement (Minsk Protocol) was signed on September 5, 2014 in the People's Republic of Lugansk, the Donetsk People's Republic, Ukraine, and Russia. The agreement was virtually nullified and the civil war resumed.
The Crimean Peninsula issue is based on the involvement of Russian troops in order to make Crimean Peninsula independent and protect Russian residents.As a result, Crimea decided to join Russia through a referendum.
Putin has consistently said he will not attack Ukraine, but this is the answer.They will not attack Ukraine, but they will attack Lugansk and Donetsk.For Russia, the region is not Ukraine.
There are 1,497,170 people in the People's Republic of Lukansk and 2,299,120 people in the People's Republic of Tonetsk, totaling 3,796,290 people.Ukraine has a population of 44.13 million, so 8.6% of the population will leave.population of 1,967,000 on the Crimean Peninsula, In this recalculation, Russia will get for 12.5% of Ukraine's population.
If Ukrainian troops attack the People's Republic of Lugansk and the People's Republic of Donetsk, Russia and Ukraine will start a war.Russia's will not attack on Ukraine and not lead to war, but Ukraine's attack on the People's Republic of Lugansk and Donetsk lead to war.
Above all, NATO membership requires that the country is not in a state of civil war.If Ukraine claims that Lugansk and Donetsk belong to their own territory, the armistice agreement will be nullified, and if Ukraine tries to suppress it, it will become civil war and will not be able to join NATO.
Putin have made it clear that he will not attack Ukraine.Mr. Putin seems to be one step better than Mr. Biden.
Did the introduction of attack drones into eastern Ukraine create an excuse for the Russian invasion?
Looking at the situation in Ukraine and having seen it for some time before, there are many doubts about Zelensky's foreign policy.Did he understand the implications of not having talks with Putin and not having summit talks with neighboring countries?The Japan-South Korea issue is nothing more than a diplomatic conflict that does not develop into a so-called war within the U.S.-Japan military alliance, but will it be same in this sensitive area of Ukraine?
Perhaps because he was too confident that he could join NATO only through verbal negotiations with Europe and the U.S., Ukraine's military staff announced on October 26, 2021 that they had launched an attack on forces in eastern Ukraine with an attack drone, TB2.Russia warned on 27 that the conflict could escalate.Since countries with conflicts cannot join NATO, did they physically try to end the conflict?Attack drones are said to be game changers for air warfare around the world, and their range of operations is unknown, and they are weapons that countries have been paying attention to in recent years.The cancellation of the Minsk agreement was done by Ukraine.Ninety thousand Russian troops gathered near the border just days after the launch of an attack drone into eastern Ukraine.
What would happen if President Tsai Ying-wen physically attacked an election area seeking integration with China in Taiwan and China?It only gives an excuse for China's armed invasion.Why don't Taiwan declare its independence while building close relations with Japan and the United States?This is because President Chae himself understands that he has not reached the phase of a military alliance.
It is natural that the Ukrainian people are not responsible at all.Their right to live their daily lives should be protected and their actions to kill civilians should be condemned.However, the most puzzling thing is that reports from each country are explained in a series by the story that Russia suddenly gathered 90,000 people near the border.
