Ukrainian military shelling of Russian military clergy ? just a false bombing, or is the battle moving into the next phase?
2022-03-26
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Bombing Russian military priests
The Russian Orthodox Church said on the ２５th that a Russian military cleric was killed in a rocket attack from the Ukrainian side near the Ukrainian border in the southwest.
Will the war enter the next phase, or is this just a false bombing, or is it an intelligence war by Russia?Ukraine is currently defending itself.This is a defense against Russian aggression.When the Ukrainian attack is directed across the border at Russia, the situation enters the next phase.A defensive battle is a war of attrition that fights against an enemy who has invaded the country while suffering domestic damage.The fact that Japan does not allow anything other than self-defense is assumed to be such a battle.Although their military facilities, towns and infrastructure are destroyed, the enemy territory remains intact, so the fighting naturally becomes inferior.If the U.N. attacks Russia this time, it will be a phase of a clear all-out war.
Will the attack continue inside Russia
After Zelensky's speech to the U.S. House of Representatives, Biden announced that he would provide Ukraine with １００ attack drones.If attack drones and missile attacks are carried out on Russia in the future, Russian civilians will be killed in large numbers.And there will be many changes in public opinion in Russia.It is worrisome how public opinion in Russia will change when its own citizens begin to suffer from the damage.
POINT The longer the battle, the more disadvantageous it is.Japan's inferiority in the Pacific War was partly due to its inability to attack the U.S. mainland at all.
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How will the Ukraine issue end?What's the possibility of a Russian withdrawal from Ukraine?Is there a way to solve it?
What is the root of Ukraine's problem?At first glance, Russia, angry at Ukraine's commitment to the West, launched a military invasion, but this is essentially a matter of military demarcation.NATO included Ukraine in its group of "future participants" in 2008.Membership is subject to unanimity of the Member States.Among them, Zelensky, who strongly urged NATO participation, was elected president in 2019, strengthening his influence on Europe and the United States.
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said at a press conference after an extraordinary meeting of the North Atlantic Council (NAC) in April 2021, "Ukraine has the right to apply for membership".Russia strongly criticized the USS (DDG-71) Ross, a U.S. naval missile destroyer, for entering the Black Sea on June 26 in the name of military exercises.
If Ukraine joins NATO, Europe's military demarcation line will be drastically changed.It is about 920 kilometers by land from Stapa, a city near the Romanian border, to Shotoska, a Ukrainian city near the Russian border.In other words, the military demarcation line will move at least 900 kilometers.NATO has repeatedly argued that this is Ukraine's intention, and NATO is on the side of accepting it.
For example, what would Japan say if Russia announced that it would build a large-scale military, naval and air base in the northern territories?Please, it can't be helped because it's Russia's right.I don't think so.The difference is that Japan does not take military action, but Russia tries to stop it by taking military action.This is Russia's mistake and to be criticized, but the war has actually begun.
The problem seems to be Ukraine's, but it is fundamentally NATO and Russia's.Joining NATO is own to Ukraine's will, NATO said it would not send troops to Ukraine, maintaining a third-party position.In a sense,NATO want to say this is not a NATO issue, but a Ukraine issue.Is that really the case?
What is the specific way to stop Russia's invasion?Currently, the world is imposing economic sanctions on Russia.How likely is this to stop Russia?It is said that the ruble has plummeted, but it has fallen by about 20 percent.Russia's main industrial structure is resource trade, making it more difficult to default than that of processing trade-oriented countries.The key is how long Russia's economy will last, but what is the time axis?
Anti-war demonstrations are taking place around the world.While they are effective in calling for a coalition of liberal countries and arousing international public opinion, the key is how much they can influence Russian public opinion.Russia is not a country with freedom of expression, and anti-war protesters in Russia are being arrested one after another.Only the Russian people can oust Putin.But Russia's next presidential election will be 2024.
Ukraine is negotiating a ceasefire with Russia. Will this stop the war?One of the conditions Russia is proposing to Ukraine is "demilitarization."I don't think Ukraine will drink this.And, as mentioned above, it is doubtful whether Ukraine is an opportunity for Russia and a negotiating partner.Russia has always said the problem is NATO's expansion to the east.
If this is a matter of military demarcation, who is involved?That is NATO and Russia.The most fundamental solution is to reach a truce agreement through consultations between the two parties and Ukraine.But NATO will not change its position as a third party.International public opinion is moving toward anti-war movements based on sympathy for Ukraine, but another direction for international public opinion is to bring NATO to the negotiating table, regardless of whether it is good or bad.
Ukraine is not a NATO member, so I understand that Western countries will not participate in the war, but will they never sit at the negotiating table?If not, there is a high possibility that the invasion of Ukraine will not stop.
Ukraine and World War II.How far will economic sanctions stop Russia?
Countries are tightening economic sanctions against Russia's invasion of Ukraine.Russia's ruble fell to about 66 percent.Others are skeptical about whether economic sanctions will stop Russia's march and say sanctions are working.What do you think of past wars?In World War I, Germany was defeated and had to pay heavy compensation.After the Great Depression, the Nazis grew stronger in this envioroment and became the first party in Germany's economy.
After the Manchurian Incident, An ABCD encirclement network had established against Japan, and after the Nogokyo Incident, Japan's economy was completely surrounded.It is more like an economic blockade than an economic sanction.For Japan, where all supplies and oil were stopped and resources were scarce, it was like a food attack.As a result, the Nazis invaded all of Europe and Japan entered the Great East Asian War and the Pacific War.After World War II, postwar processing was based on international recognition that Germany's compensation in World War I eventually led to World War II. And China gave up its claim for compensation to Japan when diplomatic relations between China and Japan were normalized.
U.S. economic blockade against Japan
July 1939 (Showa 14) Notice of Abolition of the Japan-U.S. Trade and Navigation Treaty
In December 1939, we notified them to stop exporting aircraft gasoline manufacturing equipment and manufacturing technology rights as moral embago.
The Japan-U.S. Trade and Navigation Treaty expired in January 1940
June 1940 (Showa 15) Export license system for special machine tools, etc. to Japan
In July 1940, the Defense Enhancement Promotion Act was enacted (the president's authority to select export items)
July 26, 1940 (Showa 15) Enacted the Export Control Act on Steel and Steel Export Cutting Oil
August 1940 Export license system for petroleum products (mainly aviation fuel with octane value of 87 or higher), tetraethyl lead, iron and scrap iron for aviation gasoline addition
August 1940: Total embargo on aircraft fuel outside the Western Hemisphere
September 1940: Total embargo on scrap iron
December 1940 Export license system for aircraft lubricating oil manufacturing equipment and 15 other items
Oil export license system in June 1941
July 1941 Order for Freezing Japanese Assets in the United States
August 1941: Total oil embargo on JapanList Excerpt Wikipedia
It is unclear how the economic sanctions against Russia will work, but it is highly likely that the war will accelerate in the face of national survival.Or Russia may start to compensate for its economic losses by merging Moldova and Georgia, not just Ukraine.Can North Korea explain what it is doing under U.N. economic sanctions?Ironically, it was war that ended the war.Or eliminate the cause of the war.
The world seems to be doing exactly what was done 100 years ago.Russia says it will not stop the war until it completes its operation.
International hacker groups target companies that do not withdraw from Russia.Japanese companies are among them.
On Twitter, the international hacker group Anonymous warned that its target would be a company that refuses to withdraw from Russia because it uses data collection from Russian companies to financially support Ukrainians.Among the companies receiving the warning are Japan's Dentsu International and Bridgestone.They wrote they give 48 hours to withdraw from Russia.We also tweeted that if you didn't withdraw, you would be under our target, and reported that we launched an unprecedented attack on the Russian government website.It increased its peak capacity from the previous 500GB and is now up to 1TB, two to three times more powerful than the most serious incidents.
The group also announced on March 18 that it tested 14,000 cameras around Kiev.We found vulnerabilities that are equally possible in Russia.He tweeted, adding that he would also proceed with camera intrusion tests in other major Ukrainian cities.On March 11th, anonymous called for a global boycott of Nestle products and claimed attacks on its site over the past few days against the company, which has more than 7,000 employees in Russia.Pizza chain Papa John's also criticized 190 Russian stores for continuing to operate.
On February 25, the group declared war on Russia, and on March 7, the group successfully hacked Russian state-run TV and online streaming sites, replacing images and reporting.
The image posted on twitter also includes Japanese companies.UNIQLO has also announced that it will not withdraw from Russia.
President Zelensky Addresses U.S. Congress, Says America Will Provide Economic Aid and Drone.
President Zelensky attended and delivered a speech to the U.S. Congress remotely.It called for military assistance from the United States, and if it cannot send troops, it called for the provision of weapons and increased economic sanctions.Biden announced $800 million in additional military assistance and said he would provide 100 strategic drones, although he could not provide fighter jets.The U.S. has UAVs such as switch blades and LMAMS.Ukraine has asked NATO to set up a no-fly zone, but both NATO and the U.S. military have denied it.This is because setting up a no-fly airspace means NATO fighter jets and surface-to-air missiles will shoot down Russian fighter jets.When Poland asked to send Mig-29 to Ukraine via the United States, the United States refused, saying it would be considered a participation in the war.It seems to be a delicate judgment that a strategic drone is OK, although it does not set up a no-fly airspace and does not provide fighter jets.
Russian military company Karashnikov Conzeln is unveiling its unmanned KUB military attack drone at a military exhibition in Moscow in August 2021.Attack drones such as Turkish-made attack drone Kargu-2 may have tracked soldiers and carried out attacks during fighting in Libya in March 2020, a panel of experts from the UN Security Council released a report.
The wandering attack drone is called Kamikaze Drone, and although it is not clear why it is compared to the Japanese kamikaze, it has become an international common name.In addition to unmanned aircraft that fly remotely, some fly autonomously with AI to select enemies and launch suicide attacks.The United States is said to have used drones in actual combat in Afghanistan, but this time 100 planes will be publicly provided to Ukraine.The performance of Russian-made drones and American-made drones may be conveyed.
It was said that the development of strategic drones in the United States was a little behind.I don't know the type of drone that will be given this time, but I expect its performance.
Attacks on Ukrainian military installations began.Russia claims to be a peacekeeping mission.Japan should improve its ability to attack enemy bases.
Russia is attacking Ukrainian military facilities throughout Ukraine.Russia's Defense Ministry said it has attacked more than 80 Ukrainian military facilities, including 11 airports.Military facilities in the suburbs of Kiev were attacked by cruise missiles, as well as Kramatorsk, Ukraine's eastern stronghold, and military facilities in the south.
Putin justified the attack, saying, "There is no alternative," adding, "We are safe because we have not attacked the private sector."Russia's defense of the two states, Lugansk and Donetsk, is believed to have been based on the premise that Ukrainian troops will be dispatched to prevent the attack.Currently, pro-Russian forces in eastern Ukraine are controlling a part of the two states and trying to control all of the two states and Russia support them in the rear.
Japan, led by Europe and the U.S., has also announced economic sanctions, but economic sanctions cannot physically stop Russia's march.Ukrainian President Zelensky said he would "consider" breaking off diplomatic relations with Russia, but this would be meaningless.At the same time, he said he would "defend Ukraine" and did not mention war with Russia.Perhaps just a matter of time, the two eastern states will belong to Russia.Ukraine's military facilities have been destroyed and Russia's military facilities have remained intact.
The Japanese government has also expressed its opinion that the Japanese Defense Minister is within the scope of self-defense, but there are still many objections.In other words, we can see in real time how unrealistic and vulnerable only doing defense is.
military aggression is a physical problem, and economic sanctions are just economic sanctions.The ongoing problem is the issue of military aggression.
