The new President Yoon Seok - yeol will be confused by many obstacles to its government.The general election will be held in ２０２４.
2022-03-10
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The new government begins in a twisted state
Yoon Seok-yul, the president, will be worried about the distortion with Congress.The Democratic Party which is ruling party has １７２ seats (５８.３１ percent).It is still difficult to determine how the president can implement his policies in this power map.If you look at the presidential authority of the Korean Constitution, there are Articles ５３, ７３ and ７４.Article ７３ is the authority to sign diplomatic treaties and Article ７４ is the command of the military.Article ５３ provides the right to request reconsideration of a parliamentary resolution.Article ４９ states that the bill will be approved by a majority of lawmakers and a majority of those present, but if the president requests reconsideration, it will require a majority of attendance and a ２/３ votes .If the figure is to rise from ５８.３１ percent to ６７ percent, the ruling party will have to add to win ２５ votes in favor.
Will the full launch be after ２０２４
The ruling party's bill is likely to be rejected if it is returned.However, since this is a request for reconsideration of the bill already approved in Congress, the bill submitted by the opposition party "People's Power" is likely to be overthrown by the ruling party in Congress.In other words, Yoon will have to wait for the ２０２４ general election to take effect.Before that, various bills could be rejected by Congress, and the Manifesto incident could be eliminated.In this environment, diplomatic rights such as strengthening the ROK-U.S. alliance may be exercised to sign treaties or agreements.
Prime Minister Kishida is also eager to improve relations
Yoon Seok-yeol is also eager to improve relations between Korea and Japan.In response, Prime Minister Kishida said, "It is important to communicate closely with the new president and the new administration in order to restore sound relations based on Japan's consistent position.I want to see the new government's movements in the future and talk to the new government."Yoon Seok-yeol said in her manifesto, "Japan's apology and compensation are the prerequisite for improving relations between Korea and Japan," drawing attention to future developments."
The presidential election that divides the country
In any case, he won the presidential election, but the difference in votes was less than １ percent, ０.７３ percent, and half of the people supported the opposition candidate.
POINT It is difficult to determine how far policies can be implemented with presidential authority alone.Anti-Japanese forces are still strong.
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severance of diplomatic relations betwee There are many people in both Japan and South Korea calling for a break in diplomatic relations, but I thought that a break in diplomatic relations between Japan and South Korea should be expected from the beginning after the recruitment ruling and the exclusion of White countries.Former Prime Minister Abe already expressed his opinion on July 3, 2019, that the exclusion of White Country was not retaliation for the recruitment ruling, but a failure to keep his promise between countries.The 1965 Agreement is an agreement on claims in the treaty in which Japan and South Korea restored diplomatic relations.Abolition of this agreement is a loss of the premise of diplomatic relations, and it is obvious that diplomatic relations will break off.
Now, considering the specific problems of breaking off diplomatic relations at the private level, the video link I posted is a couple of Japanese and Taiwanese Youtuber.If private marriage is allowed, private economic activities are allowed.Strategic materials and military-related products that must be negotiated between governments will be regulated.It would be a substantial break in diplomatic relations if we could not communicate with each other at the opening ceremony of the Tokyo Olympics.
On the other hand, countries without diplomatic relations have no further interests and do not lead to war.It is not the break of diplomatic relations that is in danger, but the travel ban order.Japan has a special relationship called Taiwan.The lack of intergovernmental exchanges has never been a problem at the private level.
The exchange won rate has not stopped falling.The No Japan movement is a campaign to buy domestic products.Nothing will change under the chaebol economy.
South Korea's trade dependence on GDP is more than 70 percent, including the service sector.In other words, domestic demand is low and foreign exchange is directly affected.Even if foreign demand is received, it does not circulate at home and flows abroad.If the person who made the purchase contract increases the dollar by 5% at the time of payment, the payment will increase by 5%.The won-dollar exchange rate is 1,200 won, but it has been hovering around 1,200 won in recent days.
In order to maintain international competitiveness, chaebol companies such as SAMSUNG buy parts in bulk and produce them in bulk to reduce costs and sell them at low prices.In this case, large debts are always carried out and large payments are repeated, and problems arise when the value of the currency changes significantly during that period.This is the so-called default.Under these circumstances, the won's international credit rating has not increased, and South Korean companies can trade in dollars depending on the L/C of Japanese commercial banks.
South Korea experienced two foreign exchange crises in 1997 and 2008.No country will experience two foreign exchange crises in 10 years.In other words, South Korea's industrial form is vulnerable, and in short, it is trading beyond its currency capabilities.
Considering what Moon Jae In wants to do, the real intention is to socialize, control the currency, and stabilize the value of the won.Do you think the boycott is a campaign to buy domestic goods if it is reversed?
South Korea is listed by the FRB as a currency manipulator.
The reason why domestic demand is not expanding is the existence of chaebol companies.The role of chaebol companies in driving the Korean economy is important, but on the other hand, investment in chaebol companies is concentrated and other industries are not growing.In addition to the businesses run by chaebol companies, how can Korean companies grow globally?It can only be done with its own money without investment.
This structure will not change even if there is a boycott Japan.As a currency manipulator, even if it leaves the liberal economy, it will not change.It is necessary for the government to take the lead in fostering domestic demand and to attract investment in what industries to foster domestic small and medium-sized enterprises.The boycott Japan does not mean that South Korean domestic companies' sales will increase.
Moon Jae In's term of office is less than three months, and criticism from his country seems to be gathering.I think it's quite late from Japan view.
Lee Jae - myung, a South Korean presidential candidate, is frightened by the prosecution.An investigation battle that began before the election.
Meanwhile, Democratic Party presidential candidate Lee Jae-myung said yesterday, "If I lose this time, I will be sentenced to prison for making a crime."Lee said in a speech on the side road of Seokchon Lake in Songpa-gu, "The prosecution republic will be held.The fear of the prosecution republic is not just the sound of the wind, but the sound of the wind coming before us.It's really scary."
Lee's eldest son (29) is suspected of gambling and buying money.Lee was found guilty of violating the public election law for making false statements about his brother's forced hospitalization after the 2018 governorial election.Despite the crisis of losing his job, the Supreme Court reversed his decision.The Supreme Court justice, who acquitted at the time, was found to have been an advisor to a company involved in the Daejang-dong scandal after retirement, raising suspicions that he had an affair with an actress and a criminal record of drunk driving.
Under the Moon Jae In administration, a public investigation office was set up to separate the investigation of high-ranking government officials from the prosecution, but Moon Jae In was criticized for protecting itself by establishment this organization.Yoon criticized the prosecution for investigating Lee Jae-myung's rival, Yoon Seok-yeol, and even investigating his phone records.
Lee Jae-myung said he would be sent to prison if he lost the election, but the left-wing government wants to arrest Yoon Seok-yeol by using the Public Prosecutors' Office.
He seems to be frightened by the fear that what he is trying to do will eventually come to himself.In Korean politics, retaliation using prosecution power is common.
The South Korean government is responsible for the Korean government's refusal to allow its nationals to repatriate - Japan protected them out of human rights considerations.
The issue of forced labor and the issue of residents in Japan are related. Conscription on the Korean Peninsula took place from August 1944 until the end of the war the following year. Until then, Koreans on the Korean peninsula were not subject to conscription or conscription. Employment at Japanese companies is highly sought after, and despite being conscripted, Mitsubishi Mining received seven times as many applications as recruitment.
Normally, those living in Japan would be forced to leave because they are foreigners, but the reason why this is not the case is because of the 1965 Japan-Korea Status of Forces Agreement. The South Korean government at the time received a huge amount of aid, but refused to allow its citizens to return home. Since all Koreans in Japan were believed to be slave laborers who had been forcibly taken away from Japan, it would have been inconvenient for a large number of people who had experienced a different reality to return home. Japan restored diplomatic relations out of human rights considerations and guaranteed the Koreans' status in Japan.
As was made clear in the Gunkanjima issue, the recruitment at that time was legal recruitment under ILO standards. In terms of human rights issues, it lies with the South Korean government, which has refused to allow large numbers of its own citizens to return and has discarded them. That is a human rights issue. And what is being made a fuss about all this is the issue of conscripted labor.
South Korean Foreign Minister Park Jin strives to resolve the forced labor and comfort women issue - What does the Korean economy, where the won continues to be weak, demand from Japan?
South Korean Ministry of Foreign Affairs is extremely knowledgeable
South Korea is keen on repairing Japan-Korea relations
Korea's diplomatic techniques that you can't let your guard down
True feelings about getting close to Japan
Excited about swapping
To what extent will the Japan-Korea issue be resolved
Clarify what relationship improvement means
Special treatment is over
South Korean Foreign Minister Park, who is visiting Japan, emphasized that regarding the issue of labor recruitment lawsuits, ``We are making efforts within South Korea to find a desirable solution before cashing out,'' and added, ``The Japanese side also responded with a sincere response.'' I would appreciate it if you could give me that."
Mr. Nukaga, who met with him after the meeting, told reporters that he "intended to respect" the 2015 comfort women agreement that confirmed the "final and irreversible resolution" of the comfort women issue. I made it.
The current Yun Seok-Yue administration appears to be eager to repair relations with Japan. Before he took office as president, he sent a delegation of members of Congress to express his sincerity, and after taking office, the Minister of Foreign Affairs has shown an attitude of fully accepting the intentions of the Japanese side. But don't let your guard down.
The South Korean government's approach so far has been to extract some kind of concession from Japan, take it as a diplomatic credit, and then try to make a temporary move, and the pattern is to come back to it again and again.
Japan should negotiate without losing its stance that there is nothing Japan can do. In reality, the issue of post-war compensation has already been resolved in all agreements between Japan and South Korea.
The Korean won continues to be at a low price with no signs of rising. Due to the impact of interest rate hikes and the Bank of Korea trying to recover the won spent during the coronavirus pandemic, corporate investment will slow down. Since the won is not depreciating as sharply as before, it seems that the price is not falling off a cliff and is managing to cope even with the price dropping to around 1,300 won.
The US Federal Reserve has also begun withdrawing dollars from the market and raising interest rates. The Korean government wants to carry out another swap and looks at the American expression, but its expression remains firm. That's why it's Japan. I would like to somehow conclude a swap with the key currency to provide peace of mind.
Although South Korea has experienced economic growth, its industrial structure is a chaebol economy that generates profits through processing trade through bulk purchases and bulk sales, so domestic demand never grows, and it is greatly affected by exchange rate fluctuations. The national debt is increasing, household debt has exceeded GDP, and land prices in Seoul continue to soar, making it difficult to see when they will rebound. There is nothing wrong with the fact that Won is vulnerable.
The Japan-Korea issue is not just about the forced labor issue or the comfort women issue. In addition to the Takeshima issue, South Korea has broken all of the agreements that Japan and South Korea have concluded to date. The Japan-Korea joint declaration was left blank. The issue of excluding countries from the White List stems from concerns about the transfer of funds to North Korea and third countries.
Just because the issue of forced labor, which is about to be turned into cash, and the issue of comfort women, where statues of comfort women are being erected all over the world, are recent issues, it is normalization because these two issues have been resolved. Would you? In the first place, when South Korea refers to normalization, it means that they want to go back to the days when they were given special treatment.
Why did South Korea become a white country? Why did Japan do swaps during two economic collapses? This is only because Korea was given special treatment. It should be made clear that there will never again be a time when relations are treated as special even though they have been normalized.
