Poland's supply of fighter jets is in trouble.Ukraine says it will accept neutrality.
2022-03-09
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Provision of fighter jets is difficult
Poland's plan to supply Soviet-made fighter jets to Ukraine seems to be in trouble.The Polish government announced on August ８ that it would hand over fighter jets to the U.S. and provide them to Ukraine via the U.S., but the U.S. expressed its intention not to accept Poland's proposal for fear of Russian opposition.
Providing fighter jets that spin in twos and threes
The Ukrainian Air Force announced on August １ that it would receive ２８ MiG-２９s from Poland, but Poland later denied the infomation handing them over.Poland's attempt to provide Mig-２９ via the U.S. due to pressure from Russia but The U.S. rejected .Romania has been threatened by Russia, saying it recognizes Ukraine's use of the airport .It is clear that Europe is still supplying weapons to Ukraine, and fighter jets are one of its weapons, but is it different to say that fighter jets or air force aid?
Ukraine's ruling party intends to accept neutrality
Ukraine asked NATO to set up a no-fly zone, but NATO refused.The establishment of a no-fly zone means NATO's deployment of fighter jets to shoot down Russian aircraft, which means NATO's participation in the war.Ukraine's demand to do something about intensifying air strikes was not met, and furthermore, it is difficult to provide fighter jets from Poland.
Zelensky's ruling party, "People's Servant," announced on August ８ if neighboring countries, including NATO and Russia, will guarantee Ukraine's security and neutrality, Ukraine will accept the order of Russian neutrality .However, it is unclear how the negotiations will proceed as Russia demands Total abolition of Ukraine's army and Ukraine refuses to recognize the independence of Donetsk and the People's Republic of Lugansk.
How is NATO's commitment to Russia
In conclusion, after the Crimean crisis, Ukraine's intention to join NATO is a security issue, but if NATO and Russia guarantee Ukraine's neutrality and security, there will be no need to stick to NATO membership.And this may have been something to be negotiated before the war.The only solution to the issue is to treat Ukraine as a buffer zone and maintain peacefully.But the war has already begun, and the problem is much more complicated than before.Ukraine's ruling party's intentions are premised on negotiations between NATO and Russia.
POINT If Ukraine is guaranteed peace as a neutral region, Russia will not be adjacent to NATO and will meet Russia's original requirements.
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Has Ukraine given up NATO membership? Zelensky says NATO is not ready to accept Ukraine.
Zelensky said he no longer wants Ukraine to join NATO.This is one of the reasons why Russia invaded its pro-Western neighbors.NATO also said it was not ready to accept Ukraine.He said on February 24 he was ready to "compromise" on the status of two pro-Russian territories that President Vladimir Putin acknowledged as independent just before the invasion.Zelensky told NATO members through an interpreter that he did not want to be president of a "kneeling country."
Western countries have consistently said they will not send troops to Ukraine.In response, Zelensky repeatedly appealed for NATO cooperation, but he calmly considered the current situation and thought it would be difficult to join NATO.At the same time, Zelensky is demanding Ukraine's security from both NATO and Russia, and how to achieve this will be a challenge.Have there been any examples of NATO-Russia agreements in the past?In other words, considering what would happen if one side broke its promise, we would have to be very cautious about the NATO-Russia deal.
In any case, the only solution is to protect Ukraine's security.How to achieve this is the key to solving this problem.In other words, Zelensky has begun to agree.
What kind of response will NATO and Russia make to President Zelensky's message?
Ukraine crisis as seen from Cuban crisis. Cuba protected but Ukraine isolated.
After Castro's successful Cuban Revolution in 1959, Cuba decided to pursue a socialist path and joined the socialist camp, and American capital was expelled.In 1961, President Eisenhauer broke off diplomatic relations with Cuba.Kennedy, the next president, failed in his attempt to overthrow Castro's revolutionary government by organizing Cubans who had defected to the United States to invade Cuba.In response, Castro stepped up his anti-U.S. stance and approached the Soviet Union, while Khrushchev deployed nuclear missiles in Cuba to gain an advantage over the U.S. by deploying nuclear weapons.
In October 1962, a U.S. Air Force reconnaissance plane discovered that a Soviet missile base was under construction.The range covered the entire United States and made it easier to attack the U.S. mainland with nuclear weapons.In a televised address on TV, President Kennedy declared that he would block the waters and airspace around Cuba to prevent the Soviet Union from bringing in weapons and ammunition and supplies used to make nuclear weapons.The Soviet Union was already in the process of sending ships loaded with goods and weapons to Cuba.Breaking through the U.S. blockade of the sea would have resulted in direct clashes, and the nuclear war crisis was imminent.The two leaders negotiated behind the scenes, and Khrushchev told Kennedy that the U.S. would remove its missile base in exchange for not invading Cuba. The agreement was reached on Oct. 27 to avoid a nuclear war crisis.
What is the difference between the Ukraine crisis and the Cuban crisis?The U.S. and Russia are in the opposite position.Castro approached the Soviet Union with the aim of building a socialist country and Zelensky approached NATO as a democratic country.This is also the opposite.And the same is true of the crisis, but why?The biggest difference was that Kennedy and Khrushchev had a conversation to avoid war and were avoided at the last minute.The United States has taken the position that it is not the party concerned this time.
The Cuban crisis was averted by dialogue between the United States and Russia.The U.S. has no intention of negotiating the Ukraine issue, only Ukraine was left behind
1,700 anti - war demonstrators arrested in 50 Russian cities.Will Ukraine's invasion affect Russia's 2024 presidential election?
Anti-war demonstrations are taking place in Russia over Russia's invasion of Ukraine.It was held in 50 cities and 1,700 people were detained.The reason for the arrest is that they put up placards.They are not mobbed.According to journalist Natalya Vasiliev, the authorities arrested the alleged protesters indiscriminately, and Vasiliev himself was temporarily detained even though he said he was a journalist.
Originally, there were speculations that Putin would invade Ukraine in order to secure domestic support in anticipation of the next presidential election in 2024, but there was a reaction.However, it is unclear whether the move is a Russian sentiment or a civic movement.In fact, some people have ordered an invasion of Ukraine.Russia has desired a strong leader in history.He is a leader who can unite the people, even with strong leadership and dictatorship.This is why Putin was elected president four times, despite growing anti-Putin public opinion.It is noteworthy how the current anti-war protests will spread.
Regarding the 2024 Russian presidential election, Putin hinted at running in December 2021, saying, "According to the Constitution, I have the right to run."In June 2021, he said, "It is my responsibility to recommend a successor.Regarding whether he will run in the 2024 presidential election, some say he will avoid destabilizing the country, while others say he will not run in the fifth term.
In any case, Russia is a democratic country, but it doesn't look like that way.In other words, he was arrested and arrested for holding placards during anti-war demonstrations.It can be said that the conventional wisdom of the socialist era has not disappeared at all.On the other hand, anti-war demonstrations in 50 cities are tantamount to people taking democratic action.Whether Russians want democracy or a strong leader in the next presidential election is drawing attention.
If anti-war demonstrations expand in Russia, Putin's chances of winning the 2024 presidential election will be reduced.Moving Russian citizens by international public opinion may be one of the strategies.
What is the cause of Ukraine's problems?What triggered the war?Why did war break out in the past?
The Ukraine issue is a confrontation between liberalism, authoritarianism, and hegemonism, but it is of paramount importance.In terms of a wide-area Europe, including Russia, this is due to the military imbalance between NATO and Russia.The war broke out after diplomatic negotiations broke down.Diplomatic negotiations vary, but what is most likely to lead to war is a change in military balance.The reason why Japan is calling for a revision of Article 9 of the Constitution is that East Asia's military balance between China's military expansion and North Korea's nuclear and missile development has been greatly undermined.
The Bush administration, which has failed to catch up with the U.S. public opinion since the September 11 terrorist attacks on Iraq, had launched a war on the grounds of intervention with Al Qaeda and possession of nuclear weapons.The U.S. and Britain entered the war without conclusive evidence of nuclear weapons during the U.N. inspection.Liberal countries were directly or indirectly involved in the war, with 116,000 civilian casualties in Iraq.As a result of many casualties, Iraq had no nuclear weapons.Eventually, the U.S. military arrested Saddam Hussein, established a puppet regime in Iraq, and Saddam Hussein was executed by Iraqi justice.Russia's current operations in Ukraine are small in scale, but one of the objectives seems to be Zelensky's head.So what is the difference between the Iraq War and Ukraine?
The reason why the Russo-Japanese War began was that Russia's military balance toward the south of the Korean Peninsula had changed.The Iraq War was a war in which the U.S. overreacted to the change in the military balance of possessing nuclear weapons in the Middle East, resulting in no nuclear weapons.Underlying the Nazi invasion is a change in military balance.All wars in the past have this problem at heart.On the contrary, if the regional military balance is stable, war is unlikely.
Although various anti-war movements by liberal countries will work to sway public opinion around the world and Russia, it will not be a real solution unless NATO and Russia establish a space balance of peace.
Russian military aggression is never allowed.However, if you misjudge what the original solution is, the problem will not be solved forever.
How will the Ukraine issue end?What's the possibility of a Russian withdrawal from Ukraine?Is there a way to solve it?
What is the root of Ukraine's problem?At first glance, Russia, angry at Ukraine's commitment to the West, launched a military invasion, but this is essentially a matter of military demarcation.NATO included Ukraine in its group of "future participants" in 2008.Membership is subject to unanimity of the Member States.Among them, Zelensky, who strongly urged NATO participation, was elected president in 2019, strengthening his influence on Europe and the United States.
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said at a press conference after an extraordinary meeting of the North Atlantic Council (NAC) in April 2021, "Ukraine has the right to apply for membership".Russia strongly criticized the USS (DDG-71) Ross, a U.S. naval missile destroyer, for entering the Black Sea on June 26 in the name of military exercises.
If Ukraine joins NATO, Europe's military demarcation line will be drastically changed.It is about 920 kilometers by land from Stapa, a city near the Romanian border, to Shotoska, a Ukrainian city near the Russian border.In other words, the military demarcation line will move at least 900 kilometers.NATO has repeatedly argued that this is Ukraine's intention, and NATO is on the side of accepting it.
For example, what would Japan say if Russia announced that it would build a large-scale military, naval and air base in the northern territories?Please, it can't be helped because it's Russia's right.I don't think so.The difference is that Japan does not take military action, but Russia tries to stop it by taking military action.This is Russia's mistake and to be criticized, but the war has actually begun.
The problem seems to be Ukraine's, but it is fundamentally NATO and Russia's.Joining NATO is own to Ukraine's will, NATO said it would not send troops to Ukraine, maintaining a third-party position.In a sense,NATO want to say this is not a NATO issue, but a Ukraine issue.Is that really the case?
What is the specific way to stop Russia's invasion?Currently, the world is imposing economic sanctions on Russia.How likely is this to stop Russia?It is said that the ruble has plummeted, but it has fallen by about 20 percent.Russia's main industrial structure is resource trade, making it more difficult to default than that of processing trade-oriented countries.The key is how long Russia's economy will last, but what is the time axis?
Anti-war demonstrations are taking place around the world.While they are effective in calling for a coalition of liberal countries and arousing international public opinion, the key is how much they can influence Russian public opinion.Russia is not a country with freedom of expression, and anti-war protesters in Russia are being arrested one after another.Only the Russian people can oust Putin.But Russia's next presidential election will be 2024.
Ukraine is negotiating a ceasefire with Russia. Will this stop the war?One of the conditions Russia is proposing to Ukraine is "demilitarization."I don't think Ukraine will drink this.And, as mentioned above, it is doubtful whether Ukraine is an opportunity for Russia and a negotiating partner.Russia has always said the problem is NATO's expansion to the east.
If this is a matter of military demarcation, who is involved?That is NATO and Russia.The most fundamental solution is to reach a truce agreement through consultations between the two parties and Ukraine.But NATO will not change its position as a third party.International public opinion is moving toward anti-war movements based on sympathy for Ukraine, but another direction for international public opinion is to bring NATO to the negotiating table, regardless of whether it is good or bad.
Ukraine is not a NATO member, so I understand that Western countries will not participate in the war, but will they never sit at the negotiating table?If not, there is a high possibility that the invasion of Ukraine will not stop.
