Ukraine, which was denied accession to the EU, has been separated militarily and economically from Western Europe.
2022-03-02
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Mr. Zelensky, who signed the application for EU membership
Zelensky posted a photo of him signing the application on Facebook on May ２８."I will appeal for immediate recognition of EU membership through special procedures," he said."Ukraine is a member of us,I want you to join me." said Ursula Fondaleien, chairman of the European Commission, in an interview with European media on July ２７.
Is the request for EU membership misunderstood?
Eight Eastern European countries supported Ukraine's participation in the EU, but European Union Foreign Affairs and Security Representative Joseph Borrell said it would take a long time to join.Fondaleien denied that his remarks meant that he wanted Ukraine to join the Europe.
Economic and military pending
Ukraine has also lost its ladder in Europe.I don't know what it means to wait to join EU for a long time, but He may considered it is clear that Ukraine's joining EU would current Russian invasion make worsen the war situation.Ukraine made efforts to join the EU under President Yushchenko, but in November ２０１３, Yanukovych's administration postponed signing political and trade agreements with the EU and strengthened ties with Russia.Zelensky's current policy is to escape Russian influence and enter the West in economic and military terms, but both NATO and the EU are uncertain about Ukraine's joining.
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International hacker groups target companies that do not withdraw from Russia.Japanese companies are among them.
On Twitter, the international hacker group Anonymous warned that its target would be a company that refuses to withdraw from Russia because it uses data collection from Russian companies to financially support Ukrainians.Among the companies receiving the warning are Japan's Dentsu International and Bridgestone.They wrote they give 48 hours to withdraw from Russia.We also tweeted that if you didn't withdraw, you would be under our target, and reported that we launched an unprecedented attack on the Russian government website.It increased its peak capacity from the previous 500GB and is now up to 1TB, two to three times more powerful than the most serious incidents.
The group also announced on March 18 that it tested 14,000 cameras around Kiev.We found vulnerabilities that are equally possible in Russia.He tweeted, adding that he would also proceed with camera intrusion tests in other major Ukrainian cities.On March 11th, anonymous called for a global boycott of Nestle products and claimed attacks on its site over the past few days against the company, which has more than 7,000 employees in Russia.Pizza chain Papa John's also criticized 190 Russian stores for continuing to operate.
On February 25, the group declared war on Russia, and on March 7, the group successfully hacked Russian state-run TV and online streaming sites, replacing images and reporting.
The image posted on twitter also includes Japanese companies.UNIQLO has also announced that it will not withdraw from Russia.
How will the Ukraine issue end?What's the possibility of a Russian withdrawal from Ukraine?Is there a way to solve it?
What is the root of Ukraine's problem?At first glance, Russia, angry at Ukraine's commitment to the West, launched a military invasion, but this is essentially a matter of military demarcation.NATO included Ukraine in its group of "future participants" in 2008.Membership is subject to unanimity of the Member States.Among them, Zelensky, who strongly urged NATO participation, was elected president in 2019, strengthening his influence on Europe and the United States.
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said at a press conference after an extraordinary meeting of the North Atlantic Council (NAC) in April 2021, "Ukraine has the right to apply for membership".Russia strongly criticized the USS (DDG-71) Ross, a U.S. naval missile destroyer, for entering the Black Sea on June 26 in the name of military exercises.
If Ukraine joins NATO, Europe's military demarcation line will be drastically changed.It is about 920 kilometers by land from Stapa, a city near the Romanian border, to Shotoska, a Ukrainian city near the Russian border.In other words, the military demarcation line will move at least 900 kilometers.NATO has repeatedly argued that this is Ukraine's intention, and NATO is on the side of accepting it.
For example, what would Japan say if Russia announced that it would build a large-scale military, naval and air base in the northern territories?Please, it can't be helped because it's Russia's right.I don't think so.The difference is that Japan does not take military action, but Russia tries to stop it by taking military action.This is Russia's mistake and to be criticized, but the war has actually begun.
The problem seems to be Ukraine's, but it is fundamentally NATO and Russia's.Joining NATO is own to Ukraine's will, NATO said it would not send troops to Ukraine, maintaining a third-party position.In a sense,NATO want to say this is not a NATO issue, but a Ukraine issue.Is that really the case?
What is the specific way to stop Russia's invasion?Currently, the world is imposing economic sanctions on Russia.How likely is this to stop Russia?It is said that the ruble has plummeted, but it has fallen by about 20 percent.Russia's main industrial structure is resource trade, making it more difficult to default than that of processing trade-oriented countries.The key is how long Russia's economy will last, but what is the time axis?
Anti-war demonstrations are taking place around the world.While they are effective in calling for a coalition of liberal countries and arousing international public opinion, the key is how much they can influence Russian public opinion.Russia is not a country with freedom of expression, and anti-war protesters in Russia are being arrested one after another.Only the Russian people can oust Putin.But Russia's next presidential election will be 2024.
Ukraine is negotiating a ceasefire with Russia. Will this stop the war?One of the conditions Russia is proposing to Ukraine is "demilitarization."I don't think Ukraine will drink this.And, as mentioned above, it is doubtful whether Ukraine is an opportunity for Russia and a negotiating partner.Russia has always said the problem is NATO's expansion to the east.
If this is a matter of military demarcation, who is involved?That is NATO and Russia.The most fundamental solution is to reach a truce agreement through consultations between the two parties and Ukraine.But NATO will not change its position as a third party.International public opinion is moving toward anti-war movements based on sympathy for Ukraine, but another direction for international public opinion is to bring NATO to the negotiating table, regardless of whether it is good or bad.
Ukraine is not a NATO member, so I understand that Western countries will not participate in the war, but will they never sit at the negotiating table?If not, there is a high possibility that the invasion of Ukraine will not stop.
Former Defense Minister Onodera implicitly criticized the Ukraine issue.Japan and Taiwan will be the same as Ukraine. Former Defense Minister Onodera appeared on Sunday's report on the Ukraine incident and expressed his opinion.
Main remarks by Onodera
The Trump era did not exclude military resources.Biden ruled it out.Putin believes that the United States is just a mouthful.
The same thing happened in Afghanistan.It also happened in Ukraine.It could also happen in Taiwan.
Zelensky not only wants NATO to protect him, but also to protect his country.This will win the support of other countries.This is true of Japan, too.
I don't think we can do much about economic sanctions because we couldn't do anything during the Crimean Peninsula.
Taiwan has no military alliance with the United States.Looking at the present situation in the United States, Taiwan will eventually be abandoned.There is a trend in Taiwan to get along well with China.
The Ukraine issue is similar to the Taiwan issue, and Taiwan has not even declared independence.Neither the U.S. nor Japan has even approved it.In this relationship, we cannot help but be skeptical about what kind of legal framework the United States will use to defend Taiwan.In the U.S. Taiwan Relations Act, except for the provision of weapons to defend Taiwan, only the ambiguous phrase "appropriate action" is written.
Taiwan belongs to China internationally.The United Nations also defines the People's Republic of China as China's representative government./?num=187.Taiwan's independence requires the international community to declare Taiwan a state of independence, and the countries concerned recognize it.We can form an alliance for the first time after national recognition.If China attacks before that, which country will help Taiwan?
Trump would not have ruled out military options in Ukraine and would have approved Taiwan's independence.President Putin easily recognized the independence of pro-Russian forces.
Attacks on Ukrainian military installations began.Russia claims to be a peacekeeping mission.Japan should improve its ability to attack enemy bases.
Russia is attacking Ukrainian military facilities throughout Ukraine.Russia's Defense Ministry said it has attacked more than 80 Ukrainian military facilities, including 11 airports.Military facilities in the suburbs of Kiev were attacked by cruise missiles, as well as Kramatorsk, Ukraine's eastern stronghold, and military facilities in the south.
Putin justified the attack, saying, "There is no alternative," adding, "We are safe because we have not attacked the private sector."Russia's defense of the two states, Lugansk and Donetsk, is believed to have been based on the premise that Ukrainian troops will be dispatched to prevent the attack.Currently, pro-Russian forces in eastern Ukraine are controlling a part of the two states and trying to control all of the two states and Russia support them in the rear.
Japan, led by Europe and the U.S., has also announced economic sanctions, but economic sanctions cannot physically stop Russia's march.Ukrainian President Zelensky said he would "consider" breaking off diplomatic relations with Russia, but this would be meaningless.At the same time, he said he would "defend Ukraine" and did not mention war with Russia.Perhaps just a matter of time, the two eastern states will belong to Russia.Ukraine's military facilities have been destroyed and Russia's military facilities have remained intact.
The Japanese government has also expressed its opinion that the Japanese Defense Minister is within the scope of self-defense, but there are still many objections.In other words, we can see in real time how unrealistic and vulnerable only doing defense is.
military aggression is a physical problem, and economic sanctions are just economic sanctions.The ongoing problem is the issue of military aggression.
Negotiations on Ukraine broke down.Russia's goal is to neutralize and demilitarize Ukraine.NATO provides logistical support.
Negotiations on a ceasefire between Ukrainian and Russian delegations ended for five hours in Gomeri, southeastern Belarus, near the border with Ukraine.Ukraine has already notified of unconditional negotiations, and what this means is that it does not object to the recognition of independence of Lugansk and Donetsk.Russia seems to have offered conditions.
Russia's conditions are "neutralization" and "demilitarization" of Ukraine.This may seem like a peaceful settlement, but it is a completely different request."Neutralization" means Ukraine's non-NATO membership, and Ukraine's current intentions may be put aside but it would be accepted.However, "unarmed" means that there is no military, and that having an army is a legitimate right under international law included in a country's right to live, which means that it will no longer be a sovereign state.In other words, Russia has offered unacceptable conditions.As a result, the negotiations broke down and the negotiations were decided to negotiate next time.
Russia's original demand is NATO's non-expansion to the east.This has not changed since the beginning.So why can't Ukraine compromise on the terms of "neutralization" that it can accept?This also seems to mean that there will be no will of Russia to negotiat with Ukraine.Russia has taken military action against the possibility of NATO's eastern expansion to Ukraine and the deployment of NATO forces near the Russian border.In other words, it is fundamentally a matter of NATO and Russia.
NATO has consistently said that it is up to the will of the applicant countries to join NATO.In other words, NATO's passive stance is that it is the will of the applicant countries rather than the will of NATO.However, the war is continuing.Perhaps what Russia wants to negotiate is NATO troops.NATO wants further commitment to the non-expansion of the East.In this sense, Ukraine may not be Russia's negotiating partner.NATO is trying to stop the Russian military by imposing economic sanctions and arousing international public opinion.
If NATO agrees on non-expansion to the East ,and Ukraine as a neutral country, Ukraine's sovereignty and peace will be maintained, and both Russia and NATO will have important buffer states.If NATO or Russia sends troops to Ukraine, it will be a war between NATO and Russia.Then the military balance will be maintained.Indeed, for NATO, Ukraine's membership has little advantage.Therefore, Western countries immediately announced that they would not send troops to Ukraine to avoid war.
In Japanese history, there is a Tianjin Treaty signed with Qing in 1885.This means that the two sides will withdraw from the Korean Peninsula in order to ease tensions between Japan and China after the Kim Ok-kyun Gapsin Incident.In other words, the Korean Peninsula is considered a neutral military zone of military neutrality.As a result, Queen Min, who failed to suppress the Donghak Party's rebellion on the Korean Peninsula, asked Qing for reinforcements, which triggered the Japan-Qing War.Without such a blunder, Ukraine could become an independent country, and on the contrary, a stable and protected country between Russia and NATO.
Russia's request is simple and nothing has changed.NATO Western countries have become third parties to economic sanctions without participating in the war.Will NATO negotiate with Russia?
