The ４００ - strong Zelensky assassination unit was deployed in Kiev, Ukraine.What is the possibility of using strategic nuclear weapons?
2022-02-28
Category:Ukraine
Photo by Presidential Press and Information Office (licensed under CC BY 4.0 )
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Russian President Vladimir Putin sent mercenaries from Africa to Kiev in order to kill ２３ key figures, including Ukrainian President Zelensky.The Times reported on Feb ２７.Putin is known to had sent ４００ of his closest Russian mercenary agents to Kiev from Belarus.The unit uses mobile phones and other devices to "always know where President Zelensky is and is waiting for a green light from the client."
Zelensky Assassination Unit in Kiev?
The murder squad is a dangerous story.But Ukraine's statement that the Russian army failed to invade Kiev.Russian army is stopped to be stuck ３０ kilometers from Kiev.However, according to British intelligence, ４００ assassins have already entered Kiev.Under this strategy, even if Europe and the United States announce that they will provide weapons to Ukraine, such weapons will not help much.The enemy is watching for a chance to kill Zelensky without knowing where the enemy is.
Will Russia use nuclear weapons?
Another concern is that Putin has issued a special alert to the nuclear deterrent force.The order is to prepare for the use of nuclear weapons, but there are many kinds of nuclear weapons, and there are strategic nuclear weapons that can cause nuclear explosions and destroy small area.It is small enough to be equipped with fighter missiles, so there is no need to hit correctly the enemy.Aircraft carriers can destroy if they fall near them, and even in land warfare, if dropped in areas where enemy battalions are located, the troops will be destroyed.
There are some questions whether the Russian military will fail to attack Kiev, the closest neighboring country.If so, the Russian army will not be able to subdue any country.If we hear that Russian troops are withdrawing, we will think about the possibility of using strategic nuclear weapons.
POINT It seems that Ukraine and Russia are currently negotiating a ceasefire on the Belarus border, but according to British intelligence, Russia is not willing to accept the ceasefire at all.
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Negotiations on Ukraine broke down.Russia's goal is to neutralize and demilitarize Ukraine.NATO provides logistical support.
Negotiations on a ceasefire between Ukrainian and Russian delegations ended for five hours in Gomeri, southeastern Belarus, near the border with Ukraine.Ukraine has already notified of unconditional negotiations, and what this means is that it does not object to the recognition of independence of Lugansk and Donetsk.Russia seems to have offered conditions.
Russia's conditions are "neutralization" and "demilitarization" of Ukraine.This may seem like a peaceful settlement, but it is a completely different request."Neutralization" means Ukraine's non-NATO membership, and Ukraine's current intentions may be put aside but it would be accepted.However, "unarmed" means that there is no military, and that having an army is a legitimate right under international law included in a country's right to live, which means that it will no longer be a sovereign state.In other words, Russia has offered unacceptable conditions.As a result, the negotiations broke down and the negotiations were decided to negotiate next time.
Russia's original demand is NATO's non-expansion to the east.This has not changed since the beginning.So why can't Ukraine compromise on the terms of "neutralization" that it can accept?This also seems to mean that there will be no will of Russia to negotiat with Ukraine.Russia has taken military action against the possibility of NATO's eastern expansion to Ukraine and the deployment of NATO forces near the Russian border.In other words, it is fundamentally a matter of NATO and Russia.
NATO has consistently said that it is up to the will of the applicant countries to join NATO.In other words, NATO's passive stance is that it is the will of the applicant countries rather than the will of NATO.However, the war is continuing.Perhaps what Russia wants to negotiate is NATO troops.NATO wants further commitment to the non-expansion of the East.In this sense, Ukraine may not be Russia's negotiating partner.NATO is trying to stop the Russian military by imposing economic sanctions and arousing international public opinion.
If NATO agrees on non-expansion to the East ,and Ukraine as a neutral country, Ukraine's sovereignty and peace will be maintained, and both Russia and NATO will have important buffer states.If NATO or Russia sends troops to Ukraine, it will be a war between NATO and Russia.Then the military balance will be maintained.Indeed, for NATO, Ukraine's membership has little advantage.Therefore, Western countries immediately announced that they would not send troops to Ukraine to avoid war.
In Japanese history, there is a Tianjin Treaty signed with Qing in 1885.This means that the two sides will withdraw from the Korean Peninsula in order to ease tensions between Japan and China after the Kim Ok-kyun Gapsin Incident.In other words, the Korean Peninsula is considered a neutral military zone of military neutrality.As a result, Queen Min, who failed to suppress the Donghak Party's rebellion on the Korean Peninsula, asked Qing for reinforcements, which triggered the Japan-Qing War.Without such a blunder, Ukraine could become an independent country, and on the contrary, a stable and protected country between Russia and NATO.
Russia's request is simple and nothing has changed.NATO Western countries have become third parties to economic sanctions without participating in the war.Will NATO negotiate with Russia?
Russia Takes Control of Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in Southern Ukraine, IAEA Says
According to the IAEA, Russia has taken control of the Zapolyja nuclear power plant in southern Ukraine.Russia's Defense Ministry has informed the IAEA of its control.Ukraine denies it, but if Russia controls the nuclear power plant, it will be the largest nuclear power plant in Ukraine.It generates half of Ukraine's nuclear power plants and generates one-fifth of Ukraine's total electricity.If Russia takes control of Zapolizia, Russia will be able to obtain Azov Sea by taking control of the area from Lugansk, Donetsk to Zapolizia and Crimea.
It is said that one of Russia's purposes is the sea.For this reason, Zaporizhzhia is a connected area between Crimea and Donetsk, so it was controlled.In this way, Odessa is located in southwestern Ukraine, with 41.9% speaking Russian.If Odessa is overpowered, Russia will be able to seize the Black Sea by conquering Donetsk, Zapolizia, Crimea, Odessa and southern Ukraine.Then you can stare at Moldova, Romania, and Bulgaria, focusing on the Black Sea.
The Black Sea is said to be Russia's main goal in the war, although the military heading to Kiev is now attracting attention.
Russia has historically sought an antifreeze port.It seems that obtaining the Black Sea will be remembered in Russian history.
A clever Russian strategy How many scenarios does Putin have for Ukraine?
Putin's purpose is, as he said, to the east, NATO's non-expansion.If you think about the purpose of the Russian troops stationed near the Ukrainian border, how many scenarios are there?How many scenarios did the Biden administration attempt to respond to?
The first possibility is that if Ukraine joins NATO, it will capture Kiev, Ukraine's capital.In response, NATO countries in Europe said they would not send troops to Ukraine, and Biden's administration said they would not send troops to Ukraine.Biden's tone is "all-out war," so he would not send troops.That is, Biden tried to put off the issue by saying Ukraine would not join NATO in the near future.
From Russia's point of view, this is probably an ambiguous solution.However, if NATO forces do not enter Ukraine in the near future, Russia's immediate reason for its attack on Ukraine will be weakened, while the United States will continue to shout that Russia will attack and foreign companies withdrawed from Ukraine.Economic sanctions such as withdrawal at the civilian level have already begun.Russia claims to have withdrawn some of its troops, but the United States claims Russia is increasing its forces.Is this Biden's strategy?
Putin gets only economic blow.Therefore, the second scenario was to recognize the independence of the People's Republic of Lugansk and the People's Republic of Donetsk. We decided to bring back results.Russia is strongly opposed to Ukraine's NATO membership and is negotiating with Europe and U.S, which seemed different from case of Crimea aimed at some regions.Western countries are also responding to NATO versus Russia's all-out war.The theme is to avoid all-out war.
Putin approved the independence of pro-Russian forces after the next U.S.-Russia summit was decided and before the talks.The timing was exquisite.As a result, Putin obtained two cards before the talks.Russian troops will station in Lugansk and Donetsk to pressure the West and Ukraine.Moreover, Russia would try to prevent Ukraine from entering NATO.Since the eastern half of Ukraine is inhabited by many Russians, this method can be used in the future.Did Biden get the card?I think it's the same as the beginning.
President Putin seems to have done better this time.He succeeded in achieving results, and NATO even declared that it would not enter Ukraine.
International hacker groups target companies that do not withdraw from Russia.Japanese companies are among them.
On Twitter, the international hacker group Anonymous warned that its target would be a company that refuses to withdraw from Russia because it uses data collection from Russian companies to financially support Ukrainians.Among the companies receiving the warning are Japan's Dentsu International and Bridgestone.They wrote they give 48 hours to withdraw from Russia.We also tweeted that if you didn't withdraw, you would be under our target, and reported that we launched an unprecedented attack on the Russian government website.It increased its peak capacity from the previous 500GB and is now up to 1TB, two to three times more powerful than the most serious incidents.
The group also announced on March 18 that it tested 14,000 cameras around Kiev.We found vulnerabilities that are equally possible in Russia.He tweeted, adding that he would also proceed with camera intrusion tests in other major Ukrainian cities.On March 11th, anonymous called for a global boycott of Nestle products and claimed attacks on its site over the past few days against the company, which has more than 7,000 employees in Russia.Pizza chain Papa John's also criticized 190 Russian stores for continuing to operate.
On February 25, the group declared war on Russia, and on March 7, the group successfully hacked Russian state-run TV and online streaming sites, replacing images and reporting.
The image posted on twitter also includes Japanese companies.UNIQLO has also announced that it will not withdraw from Russia.
Four Ukrainian regions apply to be annexed to Russia - An area three times the size of Kyushu will be annexed to Russia.
Four Ukrainian regions apply for annexation to Russia
A huge area will be annexed
How do we measure the war situation
The former Soviet Union had the highest number of war deaths in the world
What will be the target value at the end of the war?
Referendums were held in four Ukrainian oblasts, and on the 28th, pro-Russian factions in the four oblasts officially applied to Russian President Vladimir Putin for annexation, claiming that the majority of votes were in favor of annexation to Russia. Mr. Putin is scheduled to declare the country's annexation to Russia on the 30th. It is reported that Russia is at a disadvantage in the war, and a partial mobilization order for 300,000 people has been issued, sparking much criticism at home and abroad.
The four oblasts scheduled to be annexed to Russia are Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson oblasts. The total area was 108,840 km2. This area is approximately three times the size of Kyushu, Japan. South Korea has an area of 100,200 km2, so it's probably close in area. All of this will be annexed to Russia.
Opinions on whether the war situation is superior or inferior differ depending on the scale. Should we think in terms of the number of soldiers killed or in terms of territory? As an example, in World War II, the former Soviet Union drove back the advancing Nazis and ultimately led the Allies to victory.
The former Soviet Union had the highest number of deaths in World War II, estimated at 21.8 million to 28 million people. For Germany, it's between 7 million and 9 million people. The number of Japanese war dead is said to be between 2.62 million and 3.12 million. Still, Russia is a victorious country. As a result, the Nazis retreated, Hitler committed suicide, and the war ended because of the many sacrifices made by the former Soviet Union, but in other words, the outcome of the war cannot be said to be determined by the number of deaths. .
What will be interesting to watch in the future is whether Ukraine will attempt to take back these four regions. If future ceasefire negotiations include the return of these four states, the ceasefire will likely become hopeless. If that happens, it will also include the return of Crimea. In other words, there seems to be no other way than to get it back through combat. The Russian constitution stipulates that the president may not sign treaties that would result in the surrender of national territory.
