Former Defense Minister Onodera implicitly criticized the Ukraine issue.Japan and Taiwan will be the same as Ukraine.
2022-02-24
Category:Ukraine
Photo by Secretary of Defense (licensed under CC0 1.0 )
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Former Defense Minister Onodera appeared on Sunday's report on the Ukraine incident and expressed his opinion.
Main remarks by Onodera
The Trump era did not exclude military resources.Biden ruled it out.Putin believes that the United States is just a mouthful.
The same thing happened in Afghanistan.It also happened in Ukraine.It could also happen in Taiwan.
Zelensky not only wants NATO to protect him, but also to protect his country.This will win the support of other countries.This is true of Japan, too.
I don't think we can do much about economic sanctions because we couldn't do anything during the Crimean Peninsula.
Taiwan has no military alliance with the United States.Looking at the present situation in the United States, Taiwan will eventually be abandoned.There is a trend in Taiwan to get along well with China.
The Ukraine issue is similar to the Taiwan issue, and Taiwan has not even declared independence.Neither the U.S. nor Japan has even approved it.In this relationship, we cannot help but be skeptical about what kind of legal framework the United States will use to defend Taiwan.In the U.S. Taiwan Relations Act, except for the provision of weapons to defend Taiwan, only the ambiguous phrase "appropriate action" is written.
Taiwan belongs to China internationally.The United Nations also defines the People's Republic of China as China's representative government[ref ].Taiwan's independence requires the international community to declare Taiwan a state of independence, and the countries concerned recognize it.We can form an alliance for the first time after national recognition.If China attacks before that, which country will help Taiwan?
POINT Trump would not have ruled out military options in Ukraine and would have approved Taiwan's independence.President Putin easily recognized the independence of pro-Russian forces.
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The United Nations Announces More Than 1,000 Civilian Victims in Ukraine - Is Non - discriminatory Attacks Conducted?
The U.N. announced on Monday that more than 1,000 civilians have died a month after the invasion of Ukraine.When you say 1,000 people, it becomes a number that humans cannot grasp sensibly.
The number of deaths, 2,829 missing and 6,194 injured in the Great East Japan Earthquake was reported.You can see how big the Great East Japan Earthquake was.If natural disasters are difficult to compare, 198 people were killed and 3,028 injured in the Gwangju incident in Korea.Taiwan's administrative agency has released an estimate of 18,000-28,000 victims of the 2.28 incident in Taiwan.The Chinese Communist Party officially announced 319 people were killed in the Tiananmen Square incident.This is not reliable because it is a Chinese-style statistic.The British government's official document reports that at a minimum, more than 10,000 civilians have been killed by Chinese forces.According to intelligence reports received by the Politburo of the Soviet Communist Party, 3,000 people were killed.
Given that the Great East Japan Earthquake was caused indiscriminately by nature, the February 28 incident in Taiwan would be equivalent to indiscriminate killings of civilians and the Tiananmen Square incident would be same.The Tiananmen Square incident lasted less than three weeks and the February 28 incident lasted five days.The Iraq War lasted eight years and nine months, with 116,000 civilian deaths.In terms of one month, the figure is 1,104, roughly equal to Ukraine's monthly civilian casualties .
The death toll is low or high is not matter in this point.The U.S. government had announced that during the war in Iraq, shelling civilian areas was a mistake.Of course, I don't think the United States was carrying out indiscriminate attacks on civilians.In other words, it can be inferred that the number of cases in which civilians are involved in combat is similar in Iraq and Ukraine.
It is important to be careful when watching media reports that indiscriminate attacks on civilians using modern weapons will result in a single digit difference.
We are currently at war, so various intelligence battles are taking place.As an ordinary citizen, there is no other way but to get information from the press.
Is Ukraine a liberal country? Wait a minute. How was the North Korean nuclear missile made?
There are many questions about whether Ukraine is a democratic country. Ukrainian democracy is said to have been after the Orange Revolution. It was 2005. During the Cold War, it was the same country as the former Soviet Union, and corruption and corruption were widespread, and the content was almost unchanged. During the former Soviet Union, there were many nuclear and military facilities in Ukraine.
Chinese aircraft carriers, fighters, missiles, etc. were provided by Ukraine. North Korea's nuclear weapons and missile development is being carried out by nuclear researchers from Russia and Ukraine. In 2017, a total of nine Ukrainian researchers were listed on the list, which the North Korean defectors who served for the North Korean secret police and the Ministry of State Security revealed as "Ukrainian scientists working in North Korea." In 2007, North Korea disassembled one 2,800-ton class and one 3,000-ton class submarine from Sevastopol on the Crimean Peninsula and carried them to North Korea. In other words, it will be clear which country it is. The weapons of China and North Korea that threaten us and other Asian countries are brought by Ukraine. Currently, in Kyiv, a railway from Wuhan has been constructed as a key point north of the Belt and Road Initiative, and China is ranked first in terms of both imports and exports by trade.
There is no dispute that the Ukrainians who are currently invaded should be saved, but the media's tone of being a liberal camp against Ukraine makes me very uncomfortable. Most of them were indifferent to human rights issues during the Iraq War. There was controversy over the participation of the Self-Defense Forces as logistical support, but the murder of Iraqi citizens was dismissed as a false bomb as reported by the United States. In other words, the Iraqi people can't help being killed, and the Ukrainians are pitiful. And he criticizes every time North Korea launches a missile. This is the current public opinion in Japan.
How will the Ukraine issue end?What's the possibility of a Russian withdrawal from Ukraine?Is there a way to solve it?
What is the root of Ukraine's problem?At first glance, Russia, angry at Ukraine's commitment to the West, launched a military invasion, but this is essentially a matter of military demarcation.NATO included Ukraine in its group of "future participants" in 2008.Membership is subject to unanimity of the Member States.Among them, Zelensky, who strongly urged NATO participation, was elected president in 2019, strengthening his influence on Europe and the United States.
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said at a press conference after an extraordinary meeting of the North Atlantic Council (NAC) in April 2021, "Ukraine has the right to apply for membership".Russia strongly criticized the USS (DDG-71) Ross, a U.S. naval missile destroyer, for entering the Black Sea on June 26 in the name of military exercises.
If Ukraine joins NATO, Europe's military demarcation line will be drastically changed.It is about 920 kilometers by land from Stapa, a city near the Romanian border, to Shotoska, a Ukrainian city near the Russian border.In other words, the military demarcation line will move at least 900 kilometers.NATO has repeatedly argued that this is Ukraine's intention, and NATO is on the side of accepting it.
For example, what would Japan say if Russia announced that it would build a large-scale military, naval and air base in the northern territories?Please, it can't be helped because it's Russia's right.I don't think so.The difference is that Japan does not take military action, but Russia tries to stop it by taking military action.This is Russia's mistake and to be criticized, but the war has actually begun.
The problem seems to be Ukraine's, but it is fundamentally NATO and Russia's.Joining NATO is own to Ukraine's will, NATO said it would not send troops to Ukraine, maintaining a third-party position.In a sense,NATO want to say this is not a NATO issue, but a Ukraine issue.Is that really the case?
What is the specific way to stop Russia's invasion?Currently, the world is imposing economic sanctions on Russia.How likely is this to stop Russia?It is said that the ruble has plummeted, but it has fallen by about 20 percent.Russia's main industrial structure is resource trade, making it more difficult to default than that of processing trade-oriented countries.The key is how long Russia's economy will last, but what is the time axis?
Anti-war demonstrations are taking place around the world.While they are effective in calling for a coalition of liberal countries and arousing international public opinion, the key is how much they can influence Russian public opinion.Russia is not a country with freedom of expression, and anti-war protesters in Russia are being arrested one after another.Only the Russian people can oust Putin.But Russia's next presidential election will be 2024.
Ukraine is negotiating a ceasefire with Russia. Will this stop the war?One of the conditions Russia is proposing to Ukraine is "demilitarization."I don't think Ukraine will drink this.And, as mentioned above, it is doubtful whether Ukraine is an opportunity for Russia and a negotiating partner.Russia has always said the problem is NATO's expansion to the east.
If this is a matter of military demarcation, who is involved?That is NATO and Russia.The most fundamental solution is to reach a truce agreement through consultations between the two parties and Ukraine.But NATO will not change its position as a third party.International public opinion is moving toward anti-war movements based on sympathy for Ukraine, but another direction for international public opinion is to bring NATO to the negotiating table, regardless of whether it is good or bad.
Ukraine is not a NATO member, so I understand that Western countries will not participate in the war, but will they never sit at the negotiating table?If not, there is a high possibility that the invasion of Ukraine will not stop.
President Zelensky Addresses U.S. Congress, Says America Will Provide Economic Aid and Drone.
President Zelensky attended and delivered a speech to the U.S. Congress remotely.It called for military assistance from the United States, and if it cannot send troops, it called for the provision of weapons and increased economic sanctions.Biden announced $800 million in additional military assistance and said he would provide 100 strategic drones, although he could not provide fighter jets.The U.S. has UAVs such as switch blades and LMAMS.Ukraine has asked NATO to set up a no-fly zone, but both NATO and the U.S. military have denied it.This is because setting up a no-fly airspace means NATO fighter jets and surface-to-air missiles will shoot down Russian fighter jets.When Poland asked to send Mig-29 to Ukraine via the United States, the United States refused, saying it would be considered a participation in the war.It seems to be a delicate judgment that a strategic drone is OK, although it does not set up a no-fly airspace and does not provide fighter jets.
Russian military company Karashnikov Conzeln is unveiling its unmanned KUB military attack drone at a military exhibition in Moscow in August 2021.Attack drones such as Turkish-made attack drone Kargu-2 may have tracked soldiers and carried out attacks during fighting in Libya in March 2020, a panel of experts from the UN Security Council released a report.
The wandering attack drone is called Kamikaze Drone, and although it is not clear why it is compared to the Japanese kamikaze, it has become an international common name.In addition to unmanned aircraft that fly remotely, some fly autonomously with AI to select enemies and launch suicide attacks.The United States is said to have used drones in actual combat in Afghanistan, but this time 100 planes will be publicly provided to Ukraine.The performance of Russian-made drones and American-made drones may be conveyed.
It was said that the development of strategic drones in the United States was a little behind.I don't know the type of drone that will be given this time, but I expect its performance.
Can economic sanctions stop Russia's war?The cause of the war has not yet been discussed.
President Vladimir Putin has no intention of stopping the war amid economic sanctions imposed on Russia.In a telephone conversation with French President Jacques Macron, he said, "We will not stop attacking Ukraine until Russia has achieved its goals."Many media outlets, including Japan, predict that Russia will eventually end the war due to economic sanctions, but this is not the case.What is needed mainly to wage war is weapons to fight, fuel to power them, and food for soldiers.If these are missing, it will be difficult to continue the war.The idea that it is economically disadvantageous and profitable is a prewar discussion.
I want you to remember Japan's past history.Japan was surrounded by ABCDs.This is a siege of A=America (USA), B=Britain (UK), C=China (China), and D=Dutch (Netherlands).As a result, Japan was blocked from ironwork, oil, and food, which were essential for the continuation of the war.What was the result?The Great East Asian War and the Pacific War began.The economic blockade is threatening the survival of the country, and Japan had been trying to build an Asian economic bloc by further promoting the idea of a "Great East Asian Co-prosperity Zone."The idea of a great East Asian co-prosperity zone was to expel Western colonial rule in Asia, and economic sanctions would compensate for the loss caused by developing the development of the great East Asian co-prosperity zone.
When it comes to weapons, Russia is one of the world's leading military powers, and there are a lot of weapons already manufactured.In terms of fuel, Russia ranked seventh in the world in oil reserves and overtaken Saudi Arabia in 2010 as the world's largest oil producer.In terms of food, Russia's grain self-sufficiency rate is 124%.In other words, what is needed to continue the war is mainly available in Russia.
Mining is also active, producing 32% iron, 31% nickel, 27% tin, 21% cobalt, and 14% uranium of global production, as well as copper, lead, zinc, aluminum, titanium, gold, platinum, and diamond.Moreover, exports of fuel and energy products, mainly oil and natural gas, account for two-thirds of Russia's total exports, and European countries cannot engage in economic activities without purchasing natural gas from Russia.Therefore, this part is not subject to economic sanctions.So, will this stop the war?
Even in the past, the only way to stop the war was to defeat the enemy or to eliminate the cause of the war.Economic sanctions did not stop Japan's military it had little resources at that time.
Looking at the current situation in Russia, it seems that they have no intention of stopping the invasion of Ukraine.Attempts to persuade Putin should continue, but it seems impossible to stop the march unless the fundamental problem would be solved.
