A clever Russian strategy How many scenarios does Putin have for Ukraine?
2022-02-23
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Putin's several strategies.
Putin's purpose is, as he said, to the east, NATO's non-expansion.If you think about the purpose of the Russian troops stationed near the Ukrainian border, how many scenarios are there?How many scenarios did the Biden administration attempt to respond to?
The first possibility is that if Ukraine joins NATO, it will capture Kiev, Ukraine's capital.In response, NATO countries in Europe said they would not send troops to Ukraine, and Biden's administration said they would not send troops to Ukraine.Biden's tone is "all-out war," so he would not send troops.That is, Biden tried to put off the issue by saying Ukraine would not join NATO in the near future.
A vague solution and the crisis of war
From Russia's point of view, this is probably an ambiguous solution.However, if NATO forces do not enter Ukraine in the near future, Russia's immediate reason for its attack on Ukraine will be weakened, while the United States will continue to shout that Russia will attack and foreign companies withdrawed from Ukraine.Economic sanctions such as withdrawal at the civilian level have already begun.Russia claims to have withdrawn some of its troops, but the United States claims Russia is increasing its forces.Is this Biden's strategy?
Second scenario performed
Putin gets only economic blow.Therefore, the second scenario was to recognize the independence of the People's Republic of Lugansk and the People's Republic of Donetsk. We decided to bring back results.Russia is strongly opposed to Ukraine's NATO membership and is negotiating with Europe and U.S, which seemed different from case of Crimea aimed at some regions.Western countries are also responding to NATO versus Russia's all-out war.The theme is to avoid all-out war.
The negotiation card will be sent to Russia
Putin approved the independence of pro-Russian forces after the next U.S.-Russia summit was decided and before the talks.The timing was exquisite.As a result, Putin obtained two cards before the talks.Russian troops will station in Lugansk and Donetsk to pressure the West and Ukraine.Moreover, Russia would try to prevent Ukraine from entering NATO.Since the eastern half of Ukraine is inhabited by many Russians, this method can be used in the future.Did Biden get the card?I think it's the same as the beginning.
POINT President Putin seems to have done better this time.He succeeded in achieving results, and NATO even declared that it would not enter Ukraine.
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How will the Ukraine issue end?What's the possibility of a Russian withdrawal from Ukraine?Is there a way to solve it?
What is the root of Ukraine's problem?At first glance, Russia, angry at Ukraine's commitment to the West, launched a military invasion, but this is essentially a matter of military demarcation.NATO included Ukraine in its group of "future participants" in 2008.Membership is subject to unanimity of the Member States.Among them, Zelensky, who strongly urged NATO participation, was elected president in 2019, strengthening his influence on Europe and the United States.
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said at a press conference after an extraordinary meeting of the North Atlantic Council (NAC) in April 2021, "Ukraine has the right to apply for membership".Russia strongly criticized the USS (DDG-71) Ross, a U.S. naval missile destroyer, for entering the Black Sea on June 26 in the name of military exercises.
If Ukraine joins NATO, Europe's military demarcation line will be drastically changed.It is about 920 kilometers by land from Stapa, a city near the Romanian border, to Shotoska, a Ukrainian city near the Russian border.In other words, the military demarcation line will move at least 900 kilometers.NATO has repeatedly argued that this is Ukraine's intention, and NATO is on the side of accepting it.
For example, what would Japan say if Russia announced that it would build a large-scale military, naval and air base in the northern territories?Please, it can't be helped because it's Russia's right.I don't think so.The difference is that Japan does not take military action, but Russia tries to stop it by taking military action.This is Russia's mistake and to be criticized, but the war has actually begun.
The problem seems to be Ukraine's, but it is fundamentally NATO and Russia's.Joining NATO is own to Ukraine's will, NATO said it would not send troops to Ukraine, maintaining a third-party position.In a sense,NATO want to say this is not a NATO issue, but a Ukraine issue.Is that really the case?
What is the specific way to stop Russia's invasion?Currently, the world is imposing economic sanctions on Russia.How likely is this to stop Russia?It is said that the ruble has plummeted, but it has fallen by about 20 percent.Russia's main industrial structure is resource trade, making it more difficult to default than that of processing trade-oriented countries.The key is how long Russia's economy will last, but what is the time axis?
Anti-war demonstrations are taking place around the world.While they are effective in calling for a coalition of liberal countries and arousing international public opinion, the key is how much they can influence Russian public opinion.Russia is not a country with freedom of expression, and anti-war protesters in Russia are being arrested one after another.Only the Russian people can oust Putin.But Russia's next presidential election will be 2024.
Ukraine is negotiating a ceasefire with Russia. Will this stop the war?One of the conditions Russia is proposing to Ukraine is "demilitarization."I don't think Ukraine will drink this.And, as mentioned above, it is doubtful whether Ukraine is an opportunity for Russia and a negotiating partner.Russia has always said the problem is NATO's expansion to the east.
If this is a matter of military demarcation, who is involved?That is NATO and Russia.The most fundamental solution is to reach a truce agreement through consultations between the two parties and Ukraine.But NATO will not change its position as a third party.International public opinion is moving toward anti-war movements based on sympathy for Ukraine, but another direction for international public opinion is to bring NATO to the negotiating table, regardless of whether it is good or bad.
Ukraine is not a NATO member, so I understand that Western countries will not participate in the war, but will they never sit at the negotiating table?If not, there is a high possibility that the invasion of Ukraine will not stop.
What is the cause of Ukraine's problems?What triggered the war?Why did war break out in the past?
The Ukraine issue is a confrontation between liberalism, authoritarianism, and hegemonism, but it is of paramount importance.In terms of a wide-area Europe, including Russia, this is due to the military imbalance between NATO and Russia.The war broke out after diplomatic negotiations broke down.Diplomatic negotiations vary, but what is most likely to lead to war is a change in military balance.The reason why Japan is calling for a revision of Article 9 of the Constitution is that East Asia's military balance between China's military expansion and North Korea's nuclear and missile development has been greatly undermined.
The Bush administration, which has failed to catch up with the U.S. public opinion since the September 11 terrorist attacks on Iraq, had launched a war on the grounds of intervention with Al Qaeda and possession of nuclear weapons.The U.S. and Britain entered the war without conclusive evidence of nuclear weapons during the U.N. inspection.Liberal countries were directly or indirectly involved in the war, with 116,000 civilian casualties in Iraq.As a result of many casualties, Iraq had no nuclear weapons.Eventually, the U.S. military arrested Saddam Hussein, established a puppet regime in Iraq, and Saddam Hussein was executed by Iraqi justice.Russia's current operations in Ukraine are small in scale, but one of the objectives seems to be Zelensky's head.So what is the difference between the Iraq War and Ukraine?
The reason why the Russo-Japanese War began was that Russia's military balance toward the south of the Korean Peninsula had changed.The Iraq War was a war in which the U.S. overreacted to the change in the military balance of possessing nuclear weapons in the Middle East, resulting in no nuclear weapons.Underlying the Nazi invasion is a change in military balance.All wars in the past have this problem at heart.On the contrary, if the regional military balance is stable, war is unlikely.
Although various anti-war movements by liberal countries will work to sway public opinion around the world and Russia, it will not be a real solution unless NATO and Russia establish a space balance of peace.
Russian military aggression is never allowed.However, if you misjudge what the original solution is, the problem will not be solved forever.
Russia Takes Control of Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in Southern Ukraine, IAEA Says
According to the IAEA, Russia has taken control of the Zapolyja nuclear power plant in southern Ukraine.Russia's Defense Ministry has informed the IAEA of its control.Ukraine denies it, but if Russia controls the nuclear power plant, it will be the largest nuclear power plant in Ukraine.It generates half of Ukraine's nuclear power plants and generates one-fifth of Ukraine's total electricity.If Russia takes control of Zapolizia, Russia will be able to obtain Azov Sea by taking control of the area from Lugansk, Donetsk to Zapolizia and Crimea.
It is said that one of Russia's purposes is the sea.For this reason, Zaporizhzhia is a connected area between Crimea and Donetsk, so it was controlled.In this way, Odessa is located in southwestern Ukraine, with 41.9% speaking Russian.If Odessa is overpowered, Russia will be able to seize the Black Sea by conquering Donetsk, Zapolizia, Crimea, Odessa and southern Ukraine.Then you can stare at Moldova, Romania, and Bulgaria, focusing on the Black Sea.
The Black Sea is said to be Russia's main goal in the war, although the military heading to Kiev is now attracting attention.
Russia has historically sought an antifreeze port.It seems that obtaining the Black Sea will be remembered in Russian history.
Ukraine crisis as seen from Cuban crisis. Cuba protected but Ukraine isolated.
After Castro's successful Cuban Revolution in 1959, Cuba decided to pursue a socialist path and joined the socialist camp, and American capital was expelled.In 1961, President Eisenhauer broke off diplomatic relations with Cuba.Kennedy, the next president, failed in his attempt to overthrow Castro's revolutionary government by organizing Cubans who had defected to the United States to invade Cuba.In response, Castro stepped up his anti-U.S. stance and approached the Soviet Union, while Khrushchev deployed nuclear missiles in Cuba to gain an advantage over the U.S. by deploying nuclear weapons.
In October 1962, a U.S. Air Force reconnaissance plane discovered that a Soviet missile base was under construction.The range covered the entire United States and made it easier to attack the U.S. mainland with nuclear weapons.In a televised address on TV, President Kennedy declared that he would block the waters and airspace around Cuba to prevent the Soviet Union from bringing in weapons and ammunition and supplies used to make nuclear weapons.The Soviet Union was already in the process of sending ships loaded with goods and weapons to Cuba.Breaking through the U.S. blockade of the sea would have resulted in direct clashes, and the nuclear war crisis was imminent.The two leaders negotiated behind the scenes, and Khrushchev told Kennedy that the U.S. would remove its missile base in exchange for not invading Cuba. The agreement was reached on Oct. 27 to avoid a nuclear war crisis.
What is the difference between the Ukraine crisis and the Cuban crisis?The U.S. and Russia are in the opposite position.Castro approached the Soviet Union with the aim of building a socialist country and Zelensky approached NATO as a democratic country.This is also the opposite.And the same is true of the crisis, but why?The biggest difference was that Kennedy and Khrushchev had a conversation to avoid war and were avoided at the last minute.The United States has taken the position that it is not the party concerned this time.
The Cuban crisis was averted by dialogue between the United States and Russia.The U.S. has no intention of negotiating the Ukraine issue, only Ukraine was left behind
Can economic sanctions stop Russia's war?The cause of the war has not yet been discussed.
President Vladimir Putin has no intention of stopping the war amid economic sanctions imposed on Russia.In a telephone conversation with French President Jacques Macron, he said, "We will not stop attacking Ukraine until Russia has achieved its goals."Many media outlets, including Japan, predict that Russia will eventually end the war due to economic sanctions, but this is not the case.What is needed mainly to wage war is weapons to fight, fuel to power them, and food for soldiers.If these are missing, it will be difficult to continue the war.The idea that it is economically disadvantageous and profitable is a prewar discussion.
I want you to remember Japan's past history.Japan was surrounded by ABCDs.This is a siege of A=America (USA), B=Britain (UK), C=China (China), and D=Dutch (Netherlands).As a result, Japan was blocked from ironwork, oil, and food, which were essential for the continuation of the war.What was the result?The Great East Asian War and the Pacific War began.The economic blockade is threatening the survival of the country, and Japan had been trying to build an Asian economic bloc by further promoting the idea of a "Great East Asian Co-prosperity Zone."The idea of a great East Asian co-prosperity zone was to expel Western colonial rule in Asia, and economic sanctions would compensate for the loss caused by developing the development of the great East Asian co-prosperity zone.
When it comes to weapons, Russia is one of the world's leading military powers, and there are a lot of weapons already manufactured.In terms of fuel, Russia ranked seventh in the world in oil reserves and overtaken Saudi Arabia in 2010 as the world's largest oil producer.In terms of food, Russia's grain self-sufficiency rate is 124%.In other words, what is needed to continue the war is mainly available in Russia.
Mining is also active, producing 32% iron, 31% nickel, 27% tin, 21% cobalt, and 14% uranium of global production, as well as copper, lead, zinc, aluminum, titanium, gold, platinum, and diamond.Moreover, exports of fuel and energy products, mainly oil and natural gas, account for two-thirds of Russia's total exports, and European countries cannot engage in economic activities without purchasing natural gas from Russia.Therefore, this part is not subject to economic sanctions.So, will this stop the war?
Even in the past, the only way to stop the war was to defeat the enemy or to eliminate the cause of the war.Economic sanctions did not stop Japan's military it had little resources at that time.
Looking at the current situation in Russia, it seems that they have no intention of stopping the invasion of Ukraine.Attempts to persuade Putin should continue, but it seems impossible to stop the march unless the fundamental problem would be solved.
