The exchange won rate has not stopped falling.The No Japan movement is a campaign to buy domestic products.Nothing will change under the chaebol economy.
2022-02-08
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South Korean Industrial structure vulnerable to exchange rate fluctuations
South Korea's trade dependence on GDP is more than ７０ percent, including the service sector.In other words, domestic demand is low and foreign exchange is directly affected.Even if foreign demand is received, it does not circulate at home and flows abroad.If the person who made the purchase contract increases the dollar by ５% at the time of payment, the payment will increase by ５%.The won-dollar exchange rate is １,２００ won, but it has been hovering around １,２００ won in recent days.
Default due to bulk purchases
In order to maintain international competitiveness, chaebol companies such as SAMSUNG buy parts in bulk and produce them in bulk to reduce costs and sell them at low prices.In this case, large debts are always carried out and large payments are repeated, and problems arise when the value of the currency changes significantly during that period.This is the so-called default.Under these circumstances, the won's international credit rating has not increased, and South Korean companies can trade in dollars depending on the L/C of Japanese commercial banks.
South Korea experienced two foreign exchange crises in １９９７ and ２００８.No country will experience two foreign exchange crises in １０ years.In other words, South Korea's industrial form is vulnerable, and in short, it is trading beyond its currency capabilities.
Considering what Moon Jae In wants to do, the real intention is to socialize, control the currency, and stabilize the value of the won.Do you think the boycott is a campaign to buy domestic goods if it is reversed?
MEMO South Korea is listed by the FRB as a currency manipulator.
Only chaebol companies can grow
The reason why domestic demand is not expanding is the existence of chaebol companies.The role of chaebol companies in driving the Korean economy is important, but on the other hand, investment in chaebol companies is concentrated and other industries are not growing.In addition to the businesses run by chaebol companies, how can Korean companies grow globally?It can only be done with its own money without investment.
The boycott Japan fundamentally solves nothing
This structure will not change even if there is a boycott Japan.As a currency manipulator, even if it leaves the liberal economy, it will not change.It is necessary for the government to take the lead in fostering domestic demand and to attract investment in what industries to foster domestic small and medium-sized enterprises.The boycott Japan does not mean that South Korean domestic companies' sales will increase.
POINT Moon Jae In's term of office is less than three months, and criticism from his country seems to be gathering.I think it's quite late from Japan view.
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Taiwan and South Korea, which have experienced Japanese rule, will continue in parallel forever.
Parallel worlds are hypotheses in science fiction and quantum mechanics, not proven stories.However, if you look at the difference between Taiwan and Korea, it looks like a parallel world.At some point in the parallel world, two pasts are born.The branches do not intersect, but are positively parallel worlds that will last forever.
Taiwan was incorporated into Japan after the Sino-Japanese War and came under Japanese rule.It lasted 50 years from 1895 to 1945, longer than the Korean Peninsula.The annexation of Japan and South Korea lasted from 1910 to 1945.Taiwan continues to thank Japan for its development under Japanese rule, saying, "Taiwan's national character and independence have been learned from Japan."In the wake of the Great East Japan Earthquake, it was also the world's largest donor country.
It is said that South Korea was trampled down by Japan, Japanese comfort woman was used as sexual slavery, and recruiters were like slaves, and most of the Koreans were slaughtered by Japan.There are two worlds, the past.In this sense, Taiwan, the world's leading pro-Japanese country, and Korea, the world's leading anti-Japanese country, have emerged.The parallel world is now underway in East Asia.Of course, Japan is in the same space-time as Taiwan.Does this mean that space and time do not intersect?
Korea criticizes Japan for not learning history, but many countries in Asia appreciate Japanese rule.
Death toll from Halloween Shogi chess accident in Seoul rises to 151 - Different countries respond differently to similar accidents.
Deadly accident occurs on Halloween in Seoul
Akashi fireworks festival accident for which police were held responsible
Shanghai accident started with suspicious report
China's return to people's responsibility
How will South Korea sum up this issue
The number of people killed in a shogi accident during Halloween in Seoul has increased to 151. This is the worst accident in terms of man-made disasters. This accident reminds me of the Akashi fireworks festival accident in Japan and the New Year countdown accident on the Shanghai Bund in China. Shogi accidents occur when players are pushed from behind in a crowded crowd, or when they step on someone else's foot and lose their balance. This chain causes a major accident.
This also happened during the Akashi Fireworks Festival, and 11 people died. However, it is impossible for the people who disrupted that arrangement to be held responsible. Problems with the police and security were investigated day after day, and in the end, a civil court ordered Hyogo Prefectural Police and the security company to pay damages. The conclusion is that it was foreseeable and that the necessary measures were not taken. In the criminal trial, one police officer and one security company were sentenced to 2 years and 6 months in prison, and 3 city employees were sentenced to 2 years and 6 months in prison, suspended for 5 years was found guilty.
Next, regarding the incident in Shanghai Bund, I was in Shanghai on the day of the accident. A Chinese person I spoke to the next day asked me, didn't you go to the Bund last night? I found out when I was asked. According to the news reports after the accident, 36 people were said to have died. From then on, it turned out to be a complete lie. On New Year's Eve, Shanghai was in a state of chaos, with people rushing to the point where it was difficult to walk, not only on the Bund, but also everywhere, including the station premises, and it would have been no surprise if an accident occurred anywhere. . If it was an accident during the New Year's countdown on the Bund, it was clear that 36 people would not have been there.
Afterwards, I was looking into how this incident was summarized in China, and came across an article called Expert Opinion. "Increase public awareness of safety, avoid danger, and avoid crowded places." In other words, public responsibility for gathering too much. It was not intended to hold the government or police responsible.
There was clearly a problem with the accident in Seoul, and it was a catastrophe in which many people died. Maybe it's because it happened right after the accident, but when I look at articles from South Korea, there doesn't seem to be any complaints about the lack of police or security. In Japan, a ruling after the accident increased the responsibility of the police and security companies for events where large numbers of people gather, resulting in an increase in the safety of citizens.
Shogi falling accidents occur in various countries, but the way each country views and deals with the problem is completely different. How will South Korea summarize this accident?
What are your expectations for President Yun Seok-yue? Twisted National Assembly is a thorny road - Should Japan approve or wait and see? - South Korea's general election will be held in 2024.
Positive theory of Japan-Korea relations and wait-and-see theory
Remains twisted until 2024
Will true speech be freed under the new administration
Korean society will be denounced if it affirms Japanese rule
A country where there is no freedom of speech about history
Looking at Japanese public opinion regarding the prospects for Japan-Korea relations since the inauguration of the Yun Seok-Yeol administration, there are some positive views toward improving relations and a wait-and-see view seen mainly on the right. As always, the affirmative opinion has no concrete content, and since the other party is asking for an improvement in the relationship, things will probably get better. It's just a matter of trying to get along because we're neighboring countries.
The wait-and-see theory is based on the points of the Korean unified local elections in June and the national election in 2024, and that the Democratic Party (a pro-China, anti-Japanese party) holds the majority of the Korean National Assembly.Twisted stateTherefore, unless the ruling party wins the power of the people in the 2024 general election, no bill will be passed, so nothing can be done. Until then, Japan should do nothing and wait and see.
The least I can say is that I don't expect Japan-Korea relations to deteriorate any further during the next five years of the next administration. Personally, I think that if things don't get any worse, there's no need for them to get any better. In other words, there is a necessary distance between Japan and South Korea. This may be the best distance relationship.
In the long run, it would be most effective if the speech of pro-Japanese groups was liberated, rather than if the anti-Japanese movement subsided on the surface. In addition to those who prefer Japanese culture in South Korea, pro-Japanese speech is another form of speech that has been suppressed regarding the annexation of Japan and South Korea and Japan's support for South Korea after the war. Japan has no choice but to wait for South Korea to change, but there is no sign of that happening at all. The appearance of calm on the surface is only a temporary phenomenon. The root of Japan-Korea relations lies within South Korea, where freedom of speech is not recognized regarding the past history of Japan and South Korea. It is impossible to publicly state the fact that the Korean Peninsula modernized under Japanese rule.
Under Japanese rule, slaves, who accounted for half of the population, were liberated, the class system was abolished, a school education system was established, food self-sufficiency increased, starvation deaths decreased sharply, sanitary conditions improved, and cholera and typhoid fever were reduced. The number of deaths due to such things has decreased dramatically. These are facts that do not exist in Korea.
In South Korea's historical perspective, those who affirmed Japanese rule were expelled from academia in order to make the history of being enslaved and violated by Japan into a fact. He was also expelled from politics and government, and media outlets were also blocked. This is an unobjective view of history that only accepts one opinion, and is not academic in the first place. At the root of Japan-Korea relations is this unilaterally created view of history and the education of history based on that view. Unless this changes, we can see that even if the government continues to work together as it has done in the past, it will crumble like a sandcastle. This is exactly what history has proven.
In other words, improving Japan-Korea relations means that South Korea itself will gain academic and speech freedom, that scholars who support Japanese rule will return to academia, that they will return to politics, and that South Korea will become a democratic country where people can have free discussions. . Without this, anti-Japanese education will never disappear. This is an issue that requires the process of South Korea maturing as a democratic country, so it will take a very long time. Therefore, Japan should continue to keep its distance and not approach them easily.
If we look at the past, we are skeptical that politics will improve Japan-Korea relations. This problem is that academic and freedom of speech have not been secured in South Korea in the history of Japan and South Korea.
Election officials collect voting papers in South Korea's presidential election?an abnormal situation in which one cannot enter a ballot box directly.
Electors were unable to properly manage voting papers during the pre-voting process for those who were confirmed and quarantined on May 5, causing confusion.Some voters protested, saying, "It violates the principle of direct and secret voting," as election workers collected voting papers instead of putting them directly in the ballot box.Some polling stations put voting papers in baskets and transported them, saying, "We don't do this in the election for school president and mayor."The ruling and opposition parties visited the National Election Commission in protest.The National Election Commission said, "It was insufficient for voting management, but there was absolutely no illegal possession," and decided to hold an emergency meeting on July 7 to prepare measures to vote in Japan.
This is a surprising incident, but is it possible in Korea?It is surprising that election officials collect voting papers.In the 2020 general elections in Korea, the ballot box itself was suspected to be replaced and there was a big problem with illegal elections, and this is like this in the presidential election.Moon Jae In said yesterday, "It is regrettable mistake, and the NEC should explain the situation," while Lee Jae-myung said, "We should take thorough measures to prevent confusion in the main vote on June 9."In the first place, it can be said that no countermeasures have been taken even though there was such a disturbance in the 2020 general election.The president's Moon Jae In and the ruling Democratic Party should had taken the measures together.
In the 2020 election, there was a lot of controversy over the illegal election.Korea uses an electronic ballot counting system and its communication equipment is made by Huawei.It is unclear why China is introducing Chinese products into the voting system because it is not a democracy, but some point out that the results of the vote counting may have been falsified due to illegal access from China.A professor at the University of Michigan said, "The ruling party's landslide victory in the general election is statistically abnormal, and there are many illegal votes that is enough to change the president-elect, and he published a paper about that.
Korea makes fun of Japan as a democratic backward country, but in Japan, election clerks cannot collect voting papers.That is, it has been taken care of in Japan.
Moon Jae In wants pictures. Looking at the four years of Moon Jae In, it seems that they think that meeting heads of state and chatting with each other will make the world peaceful.Although the North-U.S. dialogue broke down due to Moon Jae In talked lies, Moon Jae In was just wanted to be photographed on camera, and after joint liaison office between the two Koreas was bombed.In ASEAN suddenly approached former Prime Minister Abe and took a picture they were sitting with Moon Jea In for a few miutes."At the Tokyo Olympics, Japan, South Korea, China and North Korea proposed a four-way summit, but the contents are unclear.When we meet, the world will be at peace.Now it is invalid because North Korea is not participating, but I don't understand why he want to meet the prime ministers.He still seems to think that he can achieve it just leaders meet.
