Mr. Xi Jinping believes that Taiwan's independence is the trigger for his invasion of Taiwan - The timing of Taiwan's independence and the influence of elections in each country.
2021-11-18
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The timing of the invasion of Taiwan is Taiwanese independence
The term of office of the Chinese president is five years. In ２０１８, China's National People's Congress lifted the １０-year limit for two terms, making it possible for candidates to be re-elected as many times as they like. Xi Jinping is currently in his second term, and his term ends in ２０２３. Regarding the timing, if any, of China's invasion of Taiwan, in January ２０２１, the Chinese Minister of Defense made in-depth statements that Taiwan's independence would mean war. At the recent U.S.-China summit, Xi Jinping said, ``If Taiwan's independence forces cross the line, we will take decisive measures.''
In other words, the timing is Taiwan's independence. So, regardless of what kind of action or state one considers independence, Taiwan satisfies all the substantive requirements for becoming a state under international law. All that remains is to draft a declaration of independence and declare it to the international community as an independent country. The question is at what timing it will be done.
The key point is the ２０２４ Taiwan presidential election
Regarding this, President Tsai Ing-wen has stated that Taiwan is "already independent," indicating that she has no intention of drafting a declaration of independence. Taiwan's ２０２４ presidential election will be held the year after Xi Jinping begins his third term. The Democratic Progressive Party candidates advocate Taiwan's independence, which means that Taiwan is not yet independent, which is a very different nuance from President Tsai Ing-wen's ``already independent'' statement.
If the Democratic Progressive Party candidate becomes Taiwan's president in ２０２４, there is a high possibility that he will draft a declaration of independence during his term. Xi Jinping, aiming for a third term, will support the Kuomintang, the opposition force to Taiwan's ruling party, and seek to become Taiwan's president. Obsessed with elections. The Nationalist Party is a pro-China party. ２０２４ is also the year of the US presidential election. Based on President Tsai Ing-wen's idea that the country is "already independent," it is unlikely that a declaration of independence will be drafted under the Tsai Ing-wen administration or the Biden administration.
MEMO Taiwan's presidential election and the US presidential election will begin in ２０２４, and Xi Jinping's third term will begin in ２０２３. It will be interesting to see if there is any movement after this time.
Xi Jinping's re-election also has a big impact
Since the term of office of Taiwan's president is four years, the term of office of the next president will expire in ２０２８, which will be Xi Jinping's fourth term. Xi Jinping will need to see results by at least ２０２７ to be re-elected to a fourth term. This timing is the ６th year that Commander Davidson said that war would occur within ６ years. If the US Republican Party wins in ２０２４, the situation will change dramatically.
POINT The timing of Taiwan's declaration of independence may have a great deal to do with the elections in the three countries.
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China's territorial waters violations started in 2012, and what is the cause? - The Senkaku Islands issue became apparent after nationalization. Where did the Senkaku Islands issue begin and where did it emerge? 1971 and 2012.In June 1971, Taiwan's Foreign Ministry claimed sovereignty over the Senkaku Islands.In response, the People's Republic of China claimed sovereignty in September 1971.The assumption began in 1969 when the U.N. ECAFE announced the possibility of oil reserves.At that time, Chiang Kai-shek claimed ownership of mainland China, and China claimed ownership of Taiwan, so it took only three months to declare ownership.
It is said that in 1972 Japan-China normalization of diplomatic relations, there was communication between the two sides that the Senkaku Islands issue would not be a problem if we did not make it a problem.It means the shelved agreement. The graph shows the number of Chinese ships invading territorial waters.It is clear that there will be no trouble for 40 years until September 2012.
In 2010, a Chinese fishing boat collided with a Japanese Coast Guard ship and arrested the captain of a Chinese ship.The captain of the Chinese ship claimed that the Japanese had been hitting his ship, and it turned into a confrontation between Japan and China.The Kan administration of the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) released the captain for no reason and it has been criticized by public opinion. Meanwhile, four Japanese have been arrested and detained on suspicion of espionage in China.Tanigaki, then president of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), who was the opposition party in questioning the Diet at the time, was needless arresting is incorrect. He pointed out that deportation was sufficient on the spot.
Due to opposition from China and criticism from Japan, the next Noda administration nationalized the Senkaku Islands in September 2012.As a result, the problem spreads and large-scale anti-Japanese riots erupt in China.Then Chinese ships began to invade their territorial waters.In other words, the two countries have claimed sovereignty from the beginning, and if Japan declares nationalization, it will mean abolishing the theory of shelving, and China will claim sovereignty head-on.
As a result, it can be said that the nationalization of the Senkaku Islands was correct in the current Xi Jinping administration.The declaration of nationalization will also lead to Japan-U.S. security.Tanigaki would have been more correct in dealing with a simple case of fishing boat clashes. In any case, the problem originated in Taiwan, but Senkaku Islands connected Japan and Taiwan, making it an important island for Japan-U.S. Taiwan cooperation.
Will Taiwan Become a Key Hole in China's
The Tiananmen Square incident will be remembered as China's democratization movement.Even tanks were deployed to eliminate the movement to democratize students and young people.Next is the Hong Kong demonstration.China has consistently reported this as violent behavior.
The Tiananmen Square incident was suppressed by the Communist Party of China, which feared the pro-democracy movement would spread all over the country.The Hong Kong demonstration was also threatened by the enactment of a national security law and armed intervention from the mainland.In Chinese, the demonstration is called a demonstration parade, and it uses Chinese characters meaning marching while demonstrating its power.If the demonstrations are tolerated and the pro-democracy movement is successful, China will fall apart and disintegrate in the air.
The Hong Kong demonstration has been reported as an incident in which rioters were suppressed in China.If Taiwan becomes independent, the shock in China will be immeasurable.
I think Taiwan and China are different countries, but they are different in China.Taiwan is recognized as part of China.Taiwan's independence means that China's one country, two systems, such as Hong Kong and Macau, will become independent.The impact of this incident on China is expected to be enormous.Considering the impact of Taiwan's independence on other ethnic areas and autonomous regions, the Chinese government is on high alert.Uighur and Tibet are China's resource areas.If foreigners leave China, it will be a serious blow to China's economy.
The Chinese think face is important.If you lose your face, you'll blush and get angry.The territorial issue is a disgrace to China.In response to Chiang Kai-shek's attempt to resolve the Rohgyo Bridge incident peacefully with Japan, Mao Zedong criticized it as a weak stance and advertised it to the people and entered the Sino-Japanese War.In response to Japan's nationalization of the Senkaku Islands, Xi criticized former President Hu Jintao for trying to settle the matter peacefully and withdrew him from his post.For China, the loss of territory or independence is a great loss to the face of the Communist Party government.Xi's obsession with Taiwan is immeasurable.
In addition to Taiwan, China also has areas that sing one country, two systems, including Hong Kong and Macau, and autonomous regions such as Inner Mongolia, Guangxi Chihuang, Tibet, Xinjiang Uighur, and Ningxiahui.
legitimacy of East Asian regimes What is the legitimacy of the administration?After the war, the Provisional Government of the Republic of Korea in Shanghai was at the center of our administration.With the help of the United States, he ruled the chaotic South Korean Peninsula.The provisional government advocates the legitimacy of the government by appealing to the people for the legitimacy of the anti-Japanese movement.
In the civil war between China and the Communist Party, Chiang Kai-shek fled to Taiwan and succeeded to the Republic of China.The justification is that Taiwan is the successor to Sun Wen's founding of the Republic of China.
After the Vietnam War, the socialist forces won and Vietnam became a unified country.East Asia is largely dominated by former Soviet forces.
What is the Hong Kong issue?This is a matter of socialism and liberal democracy.It should be known that the problems that are occurring in East Asian countries are the ongoing battle between socialism and communism, and liberal democracy and capitalism.
Who is the enemy of this battle?The world knows that it has changed from Russia to China.China's socialist ideas are completely different from those of the former Soviet Union.What are the results of Chinese socialism?Although it seems to have failed, partially introduced capitalism, and flourished, it is only a distorted country with a widening gap between the rich and the poor.Both China and North Korea are inferior students to the Communist Party.
Korea is a democracy in East Asia.Instead of clinging to worn-out legitimacy, we need to know what is going on now.
One country, two systems The concept of "one China" is not a matter of independence, but of mainland China's sovereignty.Chiang Kai-shek insisted that the Republic of China was a legitimate government throughout China and refused to persuade Japan and the U.S. to stay at the United Nations by changing their views on China.This will be the beginning of everything.
President Lee Teng-hui first came up with the concept of "special relations between countries" in 1999.During the Chen Shui-bian period, he expressed the two countries were different countries across the Taiwan Strait.During the Ma Ying-jeou era, he said he would maintain the 92 consensus in 1992 (the agreement to recognize a Chinese concept but to recognize each other's difference about interpretations).From here we return to one China.
President Tsai said she did not recognize the 92 agreement. If we do not recognize each other's difference , we will go back to not only rejecting one country, two systems, but also each other's difference, which will be used by China to deny Taiwan sovereignty.
Looking at Taiwan's constitution, it is disturbing.The preamble to the Constitution reads, "Based on the teachings of Dr. Sun Zhongshan, who founded the Republic of China."As can be said in the Korean Constitution, the Constitution is the starting point of domestic law and should not be cited.
I don't know what path Chae will take in the future, but we have to overturn almost all of the previous presidents' interpretations, including constitutional revision.It's a very difficult task, but I want you to accomplish it.
Democratic Progressive Party Lai Qingtoku wins Taiwan presidential election | If pro - China forces win, the Taiwan Strait will become China's property.
With the Democratic Progressive Party's victory, how does President Xi Jinping view the results in China? The result was an overwhelming victory for Taiwan's independence force, the Democratic Progressive Party. Looking at the Taiwanese parliament, the Kuomintang has made a comeback, giving the impression that the Taiwanese people have given orders to the Democratic Progressive Party when it comes to domestic policy. The Kuomintang has 52 seats, the Democratic Party has 51, and the People's Party has 8. The Taiwanese people are no longer pro-China as a national polity, and perhaps because they have doubts about domestic politics, looking at the number of seats, it seems likely that the People's Party will hold the casting board when it comes to legislation.
In the first place, the victory of the pro-independence Democratic Party in the presidential election can be said to be a major achievement. The Taiwanese People's Party was viewed as a force that could divide votes. The Democratic People's Party's position is that it maintains peace through dialogue with both China and the United States, but to be clear, the Taiwan issue is not connected to the US-China conflict, but is rather an issue within the US-China conflict. The reality is that Taiwan exists in China, and on the other hand, I don't think Taiwan can act as a bridge between China and the United States.
Looking at the theme of war from a different perspective, this election was a fight between the Kuomintang and the People's Party to avoid war, and the Democratic Party to protect democracy even in the event of war. This is probably the correct answer. It is said that the decisions of young people will have a large impact on the outcome of this election, just like the last one, and the voting age will be lowered to 18 in 2023. Taking note of this, the Chinese Communist Party has been threatening you, saying that in the event of war, you, the young people, will be the ones who die.
The focus of this election was on what kind of decisions young people would make amidst this intimidation and coaxing. The Democratic Progressive Party's theme was ``choosing between dictatorship and democracy.'' As a result, table splitting fails in the opposite direction. If the theme is war, if you add up the factions that advocated war avoidance, that side will be the majority. Of course, the issue of China was not the only theme in the presidential election, but in the end, the Democratic Progressive Party won, with the votes split among those calling for war avoidance and reconciliation with China.
It goes without saying that Japan would prefer a victory for the Democratic Party. I have nothing but doubts about the Japanese media, which has not shown much interest in the Taiwanese election even though it says that the Taiwanese emergency is a Japanese emergency. A lieutenant general from a Chinese military think tank recently said that the Senkaku Islands are also on the horizon for an invasion of Taiwan, and if the pro-China faction wins the election, China will control the Taiwan Strait, an area through which oil tankers, Japan's lifeline, pass. This is because it suppresses the If that happens, Japan will continue to be threatened by China semi-permanently.
