Mr. Xi Jinping believes that Taiwan's independence is the trigger for his invasion of Taiwan - The timing of Taiwan's independence and the influence of elections in each country.
2021-11-18
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The timing of the invasion of Taiwan is Taiwanese independence
The term of office of the Chinese president is five years. In ２０１８, China's National People's Congress lifted the １０-year limit for two terms, making it possible for candidates to be re-elected as many times as they like. Xi Jinping is currently in his second term, and his term ends in ２０２３. Regarding the timing, if any, of China's invasion of Taiwan, in January ２０２１, the Chinese Minister of Defense made in-depth statements that Taiwan's independence would mean war. At the recent U.S.-China summit, Xi Jinping said, ``If Taiwan's independence forces cross the line, we will take decisive measures.''
In other words, the timing is Taiwan's independence. So, regardless of what kind of action or state one considers independence, Taiwan satisfies all the substantive requirements for becoming a state under international law. All that remains is to draft a declaration of independence and declare it to the international community as an independent country. The question is at what timing it will be done.
The key point is the ２０２４ Taiwan presidential election
Regarding this, President Tsai Ing-wen has stated that Taiwan is "already independent," indicating that she has no intention of drafting a declaration of independence. Taiwan's ２０２４ presidential election will be held the year after Xi Jinping begins his third term. The Democratic Progressive Party candidates advocate Taiwan's independence, which means that Taiwan is not yet independent, which is a very different nuance from President Tsai Ing-wen's ``already independent'' statement.
If the Democratic Progressive Party candidate becomes Taiwan's president in ２０２４, there is a high possibility that he will draft a declaration of independence during his term. Xi Jinping, aiming for a third term, will support the Kuomintang, the opposition force to Taiwan's ruling party, and seek to become Taiwan's president. Obsessed with elections. The Nationalist Party is a pro-China party. ２０２４ is also the year of the US presidential election. Based on President Tsai Ing-wen's idea that the country is "already independent," it is unlikely that a declaration of independence will be drafted under the Tsai Ing-wen administration or the Biden administration.
MEMO Taiwan's presidential election and the US presidential election will begin in ２０２４, and Xi Jinping's third term will begin in ２０２３. It will be interesting to see if there is any movement after this time.
Xi Jinping's re-election also has a big impact
Since the term of office of Taiwan's president is four years, the term of office of the next president will expire in ２０２８, which will be Xi Jinping's fourth term. Xi Jinping will need to see results by at least ２０２７ to be re-elected to a fourth term. This timing is the ６th year that Commander Davidson said that war would occur within ６ years. If the US Republican Party wins in ２０２４, the situation will change dramatically.
POINT The timing of Taiwan's declaration of independence may have a great deal to do with the elections in the three countries.
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Xi Jinping sends a congratulatory message to Taiwan Nationalist Party Chairman Zhu Li-Lun - The purpose of shaking Taiwanese public opinion is the 2024 Taiwan presidential election.
Xi Jinping sent a telegram of congratulations to Mr. Zhu Li-Lun, who took office as the head of the Taiwan Nationalist Party on September 26th, and expressed that both parties share a common political commitment to oppose Taiwan's independence, aiming for peace in the Taiwan Strait, national reunification, and national rejuvenation. He expressed his hope for cooperation on this basis. Mr. Zhu Lilun said that in recent years, under the Democratic Progressive Party government, ``anti-China'' policies were adopted, which led to the deterioration of the situation on both sides of the strait. He responded that he opposed Taiwanese independence and wanted to deepen cooperation while respecting each other's differences. In other words, both sides confirmed that the current Taiwan Strait issue was caused by the Democratic Progressive Party, which denies the ``92 common sense'' and ``one country, two systems.''
Xi Jinping and the Nationalist Party have concluded that the Taiwan Strait issue is an issue caused by President Tsai Ing-wen and the independence faction of the Democratic Progressive Party.
Although the Biden administration's Taiwan Strait policy appears to be a continuation of the Trump administration, it is actually different. Biden, don't cause trouble while he's president. It looks like that's all he's saying. Indo-Pacific Coordinator Campbell's statement that he does not support Taiwan's independence is not the government's official position, but does this mean that even if Taiwan were to declare independence, it would not recognize it? The idea is to maintain three joint communiques.
The three joint communiqués are a compilation of the 1972 dialogue between President Nixon and Prime Minister Chou Enlai.
Let's assume that relations between China and Taiwan proceed peacefully until the next Taiwan presidential election in 2024, as Xi Jinping said. If the Democratic Progressive Party advocates Taiwan independence during the presidential election, the Kuomintang is sure to stir up public opinion by repeatedly attacking them and asking why they are making claims that would lead to war when peace has finally come. Chinese hackers will attack the PCs of Democratic Progressive Party members to sniff out scandals, and they will interfere in elections in every possible way.
Elections are only a process, not a goal. Unless a declaration of independence is drafted, this problem will arise every time Taiwan has a presidential election. The Biden administration in the United States will run until January 2025. What would it mean for Xi Jinping if Trump were to return to office? Xi Jinping has his sights firmly set on Taiwan's 2024 presidential election.
While the Taiwan Strait issue will end with Taiwan's declaration of independence, it is highly likely that it will lead to war.
From the perspective of Ukraine war, Taiwan is same case emergency.What position should we take on Taiwan?
What would happen if we looked at the Taiwan issue in response to NATO's unilateral move to the military demarcation line by joining Ukraine?The Japanese media have put Russia and China on the same page, and what if China invades Taiwan like Russia?Is this really the only way to build a theory?Why don't Japan and the U.S. want Taiwan to belong to China?This is because China want to shifted dramatically the military demarcation line.
In Japan, lawmakers argue that if Taiwan is taken, it will be the Senkaku Islands.In the Albanian resolution, the United Nations decided to make the People's Republic of China the representative government of China.The U.S. and Japan agree that the issue of representation itself does not mean that Taiwan will lose its independence, but neither Japan nor the U.S. has no agreement on document, and has no diplomatic relations with Taiwan and has not approved it.This is the basis for China's claim that Taiwan is China.Currently, only 15 countries have diplomatic relations with Taiwan.Among them, only 13 countries expressed their support for Taiwan's participation at the U.N. General Assembly in September 2021, without Japan and the United States.
In this case, the policy that Taiwan would be separated from China, recognized independently, established diplomatic relations, and signed a treaty with allies are similar to Russia's plan to protect Lugansk and Donetsk.On the contrary, China, like Ukraine, will criticize the U.S. and Japan and send defense forces.In other words, we are sitting on the Russian side of the Taiwan issue.
Originally, Ukraine was considered a Taiwan issue, but it was a military demarcation line issue before the issue of national sovereignty.Past history has shown that unilateral changes in the military demarcation line could lead to war.What China wants to do is take over Taiwan and change the military demarcation line significantly.If NATO is in this situation, how can it defend Taiwan militarily?
It goes without saying that Japan must cooperate with the U.S. to face China in order to defend Taiwan.We need to make it clear that we will not allow changes to the military demarcation line.
One country, two systems The concept of "one China" is not a matter of independence, but of mainland China's sovereignty.Chiang Kai-shek insisted that the Republic of China was a legitimate government throughout China and refused to persuade Japan and the U.S. to stay at the United Nations by changing their views on China.This will be the beginning of everything.
President Lee Teng-hui first came up with the concept of "special relations between countries" in 1999.During the Chen Shui-bian period, he expressed the two countries were different countries across the Taiwan Strait.During the Ma Ying-jeou era, he said he would maintain the 92 consensus in 1992 (the agreement to recognize a Chinese concept but to recognize each other's difference about interpretations).From here we return to one China.
President Tsai said she did not recognize the 92 agreement. If we do not recognize each other's difference , we will go back to not only rejecting one country, two systems, but also each other's difference, which will be used by China to deny Taiwan sovereignty.
Looking at Taiwan's constitution, it is disturbing.The preamble to the Constitution reads, "Based on the teachings of Dr. Sun Zhongshan, who founded the Republic of China."As can be said in the Korean Constitution, the Constitution is the starting point of domestic law and should not be cited.
I don't know what path Chae will take in the future, but we have to overturn almost all of the previous presidents' interpretations, including constitutional revision.It's a very difficult task, but I want you to accomplish it.
The right of collective self-defense assumes a Taiwanese emergency - Former Prime Minister Aso mentioned the possibility that an invasion of Taiwan would extend to the waters near the Senkaku Islands.
On July 5, former Prime Minister Aso gave a speech in Tokyo, stating that if China were to invade Taiwan, it would be recognized as an ``existence-endangering situation'' under national security-related laws, and the right of collective self-defense could be exercised to a limited extent. He acknowledged that it was possible. Currently, Japan does not recognize Taiwan as a state, so Taiwan itself is outside the scope of the right of collective self-defense, but both China and Taiwan claim territorial rights to the Senkaku Islands, and China has made an armed invasion of Taiwan. It can be interpreted to include the Senkaku Islands if a naval blockade of Taiwan is implemented.
Will the premise be that the right of collective self-defense will be exercised under the condition that the United States enters the war, or will the Japan-U.S. alliance be activated while Japan exercises its right of self-defense in the event of a naval blockade? Is it? The United States uses the name Taiwan as a military name. The Biden administration has announced that there will be no change in its interpretation of the One China Policy. On the other hand, Japan has confirmed that the defense of the Senkaku Islands falls within the scope of the Japan-US Security Treaty. Regarding the defense of Taiwan, although the U.S.-Taiwan Relations Act mentions the provision of weapons, it does not specify whether the U.S. military will be involved in the defense of Taiwan, leaving some ambiguity.
If China were to invade Taiwan, there is a possibility that Japan would join the war, assuming that the U.S. military would join the war.
Considering the meaning of Deputy Prime Minister Aso's remarks, it is unlikely that they will be put into action unless they include military exercises between Japan, the United States, and Taiwan. Without military exercises, there is no way that the right of collective self-defense would be accompanied by the power to implement it. This will be a major focus in the future. We may see the Self-Defense Forces entering Taiwan for military exercises.
The US military has announced that it is conducting joint military exercises with Taiwan. It is not possible to create an action plan without conducting military exercises on-site to determine what kind of operations could be carried out in the terrain and environment of Taiwan's west coast in the event of an actual battle. There needs to be a concrete discussion about what is necessary for Japan to exercise its right of collective self-defense.
In order to exercise the right of collective self-defense, the Self-Defense Forces will need military training that simulates the Taiwan Strait in order to function effectively.
Under the United Nations resolution on Albania, China's representative government becomes the People's Republic of China - national representation as a permanent member of the United Nations Security
National representation rights claimed by both sides
Taiwan withdraws from the United Nations as a result of this resolution
Japan and the US tried to prevent Taiwan's expulsion from the UN
Taiwan is just a common name
US supports Taiwan's membership in international organizations
China expands interpretation of Albania resolution
The issue of one China began when the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China fought over the right to represent China as a permanent member of the United Nations at the United Nations following a civil war. At that time, the Republic of China was a member of the United Nations as a permanent member of the United Nations.
As a result of the 1971 Albania Resolution recognizing the People's Republic of China as the representative member state of the United Nations, the Republic of China withdrew from the United Nations. In advance, Japan and the United States tried to persuade Taiwan to voluntarily decline the right to represent China, but Chiang Kai-shek was not convinced.
One China claimed not only China but also Taiwan. Taiwan was the first to claim the Senkaku Islands before China.
In response to the Albania resolution, the United States proposed a dual representation resolution and Japan proposed an important issue resolution against expulsion to the United Nations. As a result, the Albania Resolution was passed, and the People's Republic of China was to take over the power of representation, eliminating Taiwan's seat.
The problem might have been different if Taiwan had withdrawn its representation rights and applied for recognition as a separate country at the same time.
What we now call Taiwan is not the official name of the country; its official name is the Republic of China. Taiwan is a common name that means the name of the region. At the Olympic Games, it was called Chinese Taipei, and Japan's NHK called it Tiwan, which became a hot topic, but the country's name itself is internationally connected to the United Nations issue.
Based on the above circumstances, the United Nations has simply recognized the People's Republic of China as the representative government of China, and since the Republic of China has withdrawn from the United Nations, this does not mean that the United Nations does not recognize the country.
The United States has said it will support Taiwan's participation in international organizations. U.S. Republican Rep. Jim Risch said that China is expanding the interpretation of the Albania resolution.
Conversely, the basis for China's insistence on excluding Taiwan from the international community is the 1971 Albania resolution.
The United States has criticized China for abusing the Albania resolution by expanding its interpretation. China is pressuring other countries to prevent Taiwan from participating in international organizations.
