Promise between Japan and Korea
2021-07-21
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If you read the Korean news, They say that Japan and South Korea are using the Tokyo Olympics for political purposes, but they are not objective.This is because Japan has not done anything this time either.Prime minister Suga has done nothing but say that Moon Jae In will respond politely if she comes to Japan.Japan's attitude has not changed consistently, and the message has been conveyed to South Korea many times.Correction of violations of the １９６５ Agreement, which was the basis for the restoration of diplomatic relations.This is all Japan has demanded, so there is no bargaining or anything.It was Moon Jae In who underestimated the issue and played tricks on it.
In addition, there are opinions that Japan and South Korea need to compromise and that the leaders of the two countries need to make a decision, but if Japan obscures the １９６５ agreement, it will mean a break in diplomatic relations.The reason is that the agreement, which is a prerequisite for diplomatic relations, should be scrapped.The biggest problem is that the Korean people do not understand this and form public opinion.In other words, Japan will not budge an inch from implementing the １９６５ agreement to prevent the South Korean government from breaking off diplomatic relations.In this respect, the act of drawing concessions from Japan itself is far from maintaining diplomatic relations.
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President Yun Seok - Yeol was criticized for not demanding an apology from Japan during Korea Liberation Day! Countries demanding an apology on the day the war ended.
Enthusiasm to repair Japan-Korea relations
A country that expects grudge festival on the day of the end of the war
It is clear that it will change again if the government changes
Promises between Japan and South Korea that have been repeatedly broken
Background of countries that fail to keep their promises
It appears that President Yun Seok-Yeong's speech at Liberation Day is under attack. It is said that he only shouted for freedom 33 times in his speech on Liberation Day, but did not hear a single word demanding an apology on the 77th anniversary of Liberation Day.
In the first place, it can be said that it is abnormal that 77 years have passed and an apology is still being requested at a national ceremony.
Every country holds some type of event on Victory Day or the End of World War Day, but avoid using expressions that suggest that the country is still considered an enemy country. This is a matter of course if there are diplomatic relations, which is international common sense.
Will Israeli President Herzog give a speech on the anniversary of the end of the war, saying that Jews still hold a grudge against Germans? It can be said that this is a completely meaningless political action.
In any case, although President Yun Seok-Yeong's desire to improve Japan-Korea relations is highly commendable, even if we make some kind of promise with him, we have no idea what will happen once his term ends.
In Japan, it has been reported that the agreement between Japan and South Korea was broken during the era of former President Moon Jae-in, but diplomatic relations were restored in 1965, and the Japan-Korea Joint Declaration was issued in 1998, and concrete Japan-Korea exchanges were established. have started, but they are already in an invalid state. The Japan-Korea Joint Declaration collapsed within two years.
In other words, the fact remains that South Korea is not in a position to keep its promises. Therein lies the essential problem. The best-selling book Anti-Japanese Tribalism written by Korean professor Lee Yong-hoon describes anti-Japanese as shamanism that goes beyond logic. It is truly an anti-Japanese religion.
Representative Yuko Obuchi appeared at the Japan - Korea summit meeting *A wedge telling South Korea not to forget what she said. A meeting and dinner was held between Prime Minister Kishida and President Yun Seok-Yeol, and a press conference was held without a joint statement.
What has been decided is the resumption of shuttle diplomacy and the lifting of restrictions on three strategic items. In reality, the matter falls under the jurisdiction of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, but the actual content is that the leaders met together to confirm the matter.
Regarding the lifting of restrictions on strategic substances, in reality there will be no major changes in distribution from Japan, and the 2019 restrictions will not reduce or stop exports, so nothing will actually change.
In particular, President Yun Seok-Yeol raised the issue of North Korea and showed South Korea's cooperative attitude toward Japan, but this has only confirmed that this is back on track. This is natural since the North Korea issue is being dealt with through the Japan-U.S. Security Treaty and the U.S.-South Korea Security Treaty.
At the very least, future shuttle diplomacy should ask what South Korea can do for Japan, rather than the diplomatic relations that have been the case in the past, where Japan did something unilaterally.
That's what makes for healthy diplomatic relations. I can't think of anything specific that South Korea has done for Japan. No one is looking for diplomatic relations that involve chatting at the table and asking for wads of money under the table.
The next day, the Japanese media focused on the meeting between Suga, president-elect of the Japan-Korea Parliamentary Federation, and President Yun Seok-yeoul, but what I wanted to draw attention to was the woman in the very edge of the photo.
She is Yuko Obuchi, a lawmaker, and the daughter of former Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi. The reason I wondered why she was in this seat was because I remember her not holding any government-related positions.
What really struck me was the 1998 Japan-Korea Joint Declaration. President Yun Seok-Yeol insists that Japan-Korea relations should return to the Japan-Korea Joint Declaration, but the question is how to return. And Japan complies with all of the Japan-Korea Joint Declaration. Returning would be a problem only for the Korean side.
The points of the 1998 Japan-Korea Joint Declaration are as follows.
Japan-Korea Joint DeclarationHolding of the 2002 FIFA World Cup
Promoting Japan-Korea economic cooperation
Opening of Japanese culture in Korea
Fisheries agreement around Takeshima in accordance with the new United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea
Response to North Korea issue
The holding of the Japan-Korea World Cup and the influx of Korean Wave content all stemmed from this joint declaration.
The Japan-Korea Joint Declaration was signed by President Kim Dae-jung, but the Japan-Korea World Cup was said to be the worst tournament in FIFA history, and it became unclear whether it was an anti-Japan movement or a soccer tournament.
Less than two years later, the South Korean National Assembly passed a resolution to invalidate this joint declaration. Japanese people must not forget that the area around Takeshima was subsequently filled with Korean fishing boats again, resulting in the current state of Takeshima.
The Japanese representative who concluded this agreement was former Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi. South Korea has completely torn up not only the 1965 Agreement, but also the 1988 Agreement.
Was Representative Yuko Obuchi invited to this meeting as a symbolic icon? In other words, this seems to have driven a wedge that returning to the Japan-South Korea Joint Declaration is the goal of the talks. It's about not forgetting what I said. Does the Korean side actually understand the meaning of this? I don't think they understand.
In conclusion, returning to the Japan-Korea Joint Declaration would be a very high hurdle. This joint declaration was scrapped because of the Takeshima issue. Perhaps the Korean side only understands this declaration as a resumption of cultural exchange.
The exchange won rate has not stopped falling.The No Japan movement is a campaign to buy domestic products.Nothing will change under the chaebol economy.
South Korea's trade dependence on GDP is more than 70 percent, including the service sector.In other words, domestic demand is low and foreign exchange is directly affected.Even if foreign demand is received, it does not circulate at home and flows abroad.If the person who made the purchase contract increases the dollar by 5% at the time of payment, the payment will increase by 5%.The won-dollar exchange rate is 1,200 won, but it has been hovering around 1,200 won in recent days.
In order to maintain international competitiveness, chaebol companies such as SAMSUNG buy parts in bulk and produce them in bulk to reduce costs and sell them at low prices.In this case, large debts are always carried out and large payments are repeated, and problems arise when the value of the currency changes significantly during that period.This is the so-called default.Under these circumstances, the won's international credit rating has not increased, and South Korean companies can trade in dollars depending on the L/C of Japanese commercial banks.
South Korea experienced two foreign exchange crises in 1997 and 2008.No country will experience two foreign exchange crises in 10 years.In other words, South Korea's industrial form is vulnerable, and in short, it is trading beyond its currency capabilities.
Considering what Moon Jae In wants to do, the real intention is to socialize, control the currency, and stabilize the value of the won.Do you think the boycott is a campaign to buy domestic goods if it is reversed?
South Korea is listed by the FRB as a currency manipulator.
The reason why domestic demand is not expanding is the existence of chaebol companies.The role of chaebol companies in driving the Korean economy is important, but on the other hand, investment in chaebol companies is concentrated and other industries are not growing.In addition to the businesses run by chaebol companies, how can Korean companies grow globally?It can only be done with its own money without investment.
This structure will not change even if there is a boycott Japan.As a currency manipulator, even if it leaves the liberal economy, it will not change.It is necessary for the government to take the lead in fostering domestic demand and to attract investment in what industries to foster domestic small and medium-sized enterprises.The boycott Japan does not mean that South Korean domestic companies' sales will increase.
Moon Jae In's term of office is less than three months, and criticism from his country seems to be gathering.I think it's quite late from Japan view.
The Korean won is falling.It exceeded 1,240 won. The reason that Japan must not make promises with the new Korean president prematurely .
The won fell to 1,243 won against the dollar.If the Fed raises interest rates in real terms, it will fall further.The main reason is that Russia's economic prospects are pessimistic. And Yoon Seok-yeol won the presidential election on March 9 and became president on May 10.Yoon called for strengthening the U.S.-South Korea alliance and mentioned the deployment of THAAD.China accounted for 24.8 percent of Korea's exports, twice as much as the U.S., the second largest exporter.When the Park Geun Hye administration decided to deploy THAAD, China imposed severe economic sanctions.China's economic sanctions are only pessimistic for investors, so Korean investment is likely to rise further and the won is likely to fall further.
Next time, South Korea will break its promise with China
Korea claims that the Korean Peninsula has been modernized even without the Japanese rule: Korea does not know the prerequisites for modernization
There was a YouTube video by a pro-Japanese Korean who showed South Korean youth photos of the country before and after the Japanese occupation, showing the state of development at that time. The performers were all surprised and said it was the first time they had seen it, and they were also surprised to hear that the population had doubled and lifespans had doubled.
However, they all said that although it is clear that the country developed during the Japanese colonial era, it is still true that Japan invaded. He was unable to explain the counterargument that the Korean Peninsula would have developed even without Japan.
The photo of a unicycle ridden by yangban (Korean aristocrats) is interestingly introduced as a photo of the time before development, but as I have posted in the past, this one photo explains everything about this answer. . At that time, there was no technology to make wheels on the Korean Peninsula. And four slaves are supporting a unicycle.
Modernization was triggered by the Industrial Revolution, and the Industrial Revolution was a revolution in power, and the steam engine was a mechanism and machine that transferred large amounts of energy to gears and converted it into another repetitive motion. If you can't make wheels, it's impossible to make any industrial machinery. However, this is a technical matter, and even if one were able to learn how to make one and create one, it would be impossible to modernize it.
A necessary condition for the industrial revolution is that a mobile labor force, the proletariat, must exist in society. Production becomes possible only when the labor force is replenished in industries that can develop. In the society of the time, where slaves were slaves to the yangban, this would have been impossible. These are things that always come up when explaining the industrial revolution.
The Meiji Restoration abolished the shogunate system and liberated citizens from the land, creating a mobile labor force. It was Kim Ok-gyun who tried to achieve these goals on the Korean peninsula, but the Gashin Coup failed and Kim Ok-gyun defected to Japan, but was assassinated in Shanghai. Unless the class system can be abolished from within the Korean peninsula, modernization will never be possible.
